LOL! I like this game
I shall do it in diagrams.
This image is 100 pixels by 100 pixels. It represents the whole of the Earth.
Out of the 10,000 pixels on the image, the proof of ghosts are shown by dots.
If you can see any dots, believe me, they're smudges on your screen. However, if you like, you can believe they're evidence of ghosts. Wipe the screen though and you'll see
This 100 x 100 image represents the whole universe that we have studied.
Out of the 10,00 pixels on the image, proof of life is shown by dots.
There's one.
Now, the difference between the two is that the first image represents everything, the second image represents a million billionth of the universe. The dot is a tiny speck in a tiny speck.
I don't believe in aliens, I just believe that it's mathematically improbable there aren't aliens.
I don't believe in ghosts, I just believe that it's mathematically improbable there are ghosts.
This is very subtle and something that it may be difficult to understand, it does work though.
Imagine tossing a coin 1000 times. We know each toss has a 50/50 chance of being heads. Each subsequent toss reduces the chance of it being a head again.
Ghosts are like saying that in those 1000 tosses, you will get heads every single time. It's not impossible, just so unlikely that it's not worth considering.
Aliens are like saying that out of those 1000 tosses, you'll get 20 heads in a row. Again, it's unlikely, but, with the universe being so huge, we get a million sets of 1000 tosses. Out of those million sets of 1000 tosses, we will see several instances of 20 heads coming up in a row.
Neither is definite (you are right on that front Taylor) - it's just that it is so unlikely to happen, it's not worth considering as a chance. Would you bet a 200 dollars on 1000 heads coming up in a row - even if the payout was a million? You'd say "no chance", which is what we have to do with ghosts.
I've actually already said this - believe what you like, but do so with a good deal of scepticism. Approach these things with level head and try to understand the scales you're working within. If you're looking for a 1 in 1 billion piece of proof to back up your theory, think hard about size of the issue - you're tossing that coin thousands of times waiting for heads^1000