This really is going to look stunning when it's finished
As for the other stuff, let's see if we can put it to bed. As I type this, I've not looked calculated anything out, just compiled lists of dates for other projects. Krake doesn't have (that I could find) planning documents and the like. So we'll just have to go on other similar projects (mostly by Merlin/Tussauds) to get an idea of time scales to see if it was possible for Merlin to change their mind at short notice.
It doesn't take into account B&M's order book/willingness to shoe-horn in a project (we have no actual proof of that). It also doesn't take into account how much time is required to draw up plans for the actual coaster design or if a park has multiple designs and when they make their final decision - this is stuff we just don't know. It's simply a set of time lines to see how feasible a change of mind could be. It may prove it wasn't feasible, but it definitely doesn't prove it happened - if that makes sense?
Right, let's see what we have.
The rumour is that Krake was due to open in 2010 as a Eurofighter. We'll assume a standard March opening time which is typical. This was stopped because in June 2009, Thorpe Park had had such trouble with Gerstlauer that Merlin couldn't place the order with them for the 2009 coaster for Heide, so B&M was chosen instead.
The key date here then is June 2009.
Saw
Plans Dated = November 2007
Plans submitted to council = March 2008
Construction = June 2008
Track = September 2008
Opening = March 2009
Th13teen
Plans Dated = October 2008
Plans Submitted = March 2009
Construction = March 2009
Track = September 2009
Opening = March 2010
Wild Eagle
Plans Approved = April 2011
Vertical construction = September 2011
Opening = March 2012
The Swarm
Plans Dated = August 2010
Plans Approved = February 2011
Track = August 2011
Opening = March 2012
So, what does this tell us? Plans are started for construction work around 16-18 months before opening is due.
After approval of planning, it takes roughly six months for track to arrive. We have to assume that even though everything is ready in the wings, no actual production of track starts until the plans have approval.
It's another six months (roughly) from track appearing to the finished coaster opening.
So if we look at the Heide
2010 Eurofighter rumour, it should follow something like this:
Krake 2010 Eurofighter
Plans = November 2008
Approved = March 2009
Construction = June 2009
Track = September 2009
Opening = March 2010.
Right away there's an issue. If we're working on track being produced over a 6 month period, then it doesn't work. If Thorpe caused the cancellation of this project in June 2009, then Gerstlauer would have already started fabrication of track/supports. To cancel the project then would have incurred all kinds of fees and issues. I think it's safe to say that this was never planned to open in 2010 if it was to be a Gerstlauer and then cancelled.
So, how about a 2011 Eurofighter?
Krake 2011 Eurofighter
Plans = November 2009
Approved = March 2010
Construction = June 2010
Track = September 2010
Opening = March 2011.
Again there's a date problem right away. The drawing plans would have been produced and ready for approval well after June 2010. So if Gerstlauer are out of the running, then there would never have been anything other than tentative talks about it that were passed over in favour of B&M.
However, I'm not convinced by the "B&M have four years planned in advance" argument either. One thing I've discovered in this research is that there's quite a finite time between planning approval and ride construction. Nobody is going to start making bits of track and support worth millions if planning for the ride hasn't yet been approved.
So how does this work? I've no idea, it's a genuine question :lol: I wish that the GCI wood plans had a clear date on them. Are they late 2007, the same time as the Gerstlauer plans, or earlier? Do the parks pay for a "construction slot" with a firm and then hope that they can get the plans passed? Or do they simply have a "likely" time period and the manufacturers assign a period of slack just in case they're called on?
For example, whoever is manufacturing SW7 at Alton, will they already have six months from August this year marked as "Alton" and the steel fabrication plant with six months manufacturing earmarked just waiting for the plans to be approved? I'd assume that they wouldn't do that without some cash being involved in case things go tits up. There's no way a manufacturer would lay out 6-12 month's potential downtime.
So how does it work with B&M with a 4 year order book? What is LC12 hadn't been approved? Would Merlin miss the boat and have to wait until 2015 before they could get an alternative? Do B&M sit on a big empty gap in production and build for 12 months and take the loss?
That also doesn't quite add up. I'd assume that there are "guaranteed" works that cover the yearly costs and everything else is a "quote" they hope passes. So there may well be some planned slack that does allow them to move a little quicker? It looks like Krake didn't require permission, so was a "dead cert" for B&M, which may have allowed them to follow things through properly. They've probably had enough time (particularly if they went head-to-head with Gerstlauer for the project initially in 2008/9 or so) with enough planning and development work in place.
It's pretty much guaranteed though that the theming had nothing to do with the change in manufacturer as we can see from the way the dates just don't add up. This has been planned to be a B&M 2011 coaster since far earlier than theme construction would have begun.
