I think one should be careful with comparing the numbers of the first and second wave, because in the beginning of the first wave the quality of data was ... not good. To exaggerate a little: in order to qualify to get tested for Covid one practically had to be dying from it already, and if someone died anywhere close to a hospital with a Covid patient in it, they would be counted as a Covid death. There's reason to believe the number of cases in the first wave was significantly under-reported, while the number of deaths could be over-reported. Nowadays, testing has ramped up a couple orders of magnitude, while death statistics are collected with greater accuracy. Having fewer hospitalized patients to care for, and a less stressful PPE situation, leaves more time for accurate book-keeping.
The second wave is being fought much more competently than the first, and with a better starting point than the chaotic situation of early March. But if it got out of control again, we'd be likely to see similar numbers to the first wave. That is, higher numbers, because this time we're better at counting them.
That is (more or less) literally my point
Deaths were over reported, but that was corrected a while back now, when they tightened up the counting method and removed a load from the figures. It’s now more likely they were under reported due to the lack of testing. (excess deaths for the period exceeds confirmed covid deaths.)
Also, I would say there is more at play in terms of ‘keeping the numbers down’ than just the measures in place, just look at countries that haven’t introduced as many new measures as examples. Immunity is likely playing a huge role, evidenced by the fact we’re seeing very small rises in areas that suffered worse the first time around. Importantly these were some of the most populated areas. Some of the measures are definitely helping. Others, I imagine are making things worse, just look at the mass parties, use of public transport, etc at 10pm in most cities and towns of a weekend.
Other than that, I completely agree with the core of your post. And it is a point I’ve been trying to make. This wave is still less than 10% of the first wave at this stage, due to the lack of testing the first time around. If we are sensible, wear masks, distance, wash our hands, follow the common sense rules, I don’t think there will be much need for further harsh national measures.
My worry is, we’re not exactly a nation of obedient rule followers, are we? If more people don’t take it seriously, then we may well end up in trouble :/
More reasons to be envious of Germany
The rules there are minimal, but they seem to be followed to the letter, by almost everyone... And it’s working
www.walibi.nl
