Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

[Matt N]

Some positive news for the UK economy. Apparently we are experiencing....

“the sharpest rebound in economic growth among the G7 advanced economies, while retail spending has returned to pre-crisis levels.”

This has mostly been fuelled by the eat out scheme as well pent up demand for leisure and entertainment... Staycations and day trips benefitting UK leisure companies, such as theme parks.

I know that @Matt N was repeatedly suggesting this could be the case very early on during this crisis... So fair play to you Matt, it looks, for now, like you called it perfectly.

Not so good is the fact that lots of concern remains over jobs long term. :/

'Eat out to help out' fuels UK economic recovery in August

Guardian analysis shows pace of job cuts on back of Covid-19 crisis remains the concern

www.theguardian.com

The reason I kept banging this drum during lockdown was because from talking to people I know and looking through my Facebook timeline, as well as gauging the general mood during lockdown, “pent-up demand” seemed to be an emotion felt in far, far greater numbers than “fear of COVID”. I’m very happy to have (potentially) been proven right so far, but I don’t want to be too certain, because I’m very fearful about what might happen later this year.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

The reason I kept banging this drum during lockdown was because from talking to people I know and looking through my Facebook timeline, as well as gauging the general mood during lockdown, “pent-up demand” seemed to be an emotion felt in far, far greater numbers than “fear of COVID”. I’m very happy to have (potentially) been proven right so far, but I don’t want to be too certain, because I’m very fearful about what might happen later this year.

Cautious optimism is the key phrase I think Matt...

A sudden exponential spike in serious cases destroys anything achieved over summer... But let’s just hope that is not the UK’s destiny, given how bad the first one was...

 

[Matt N]

Cautious optimism is the key phrase I think Matt...

A sudden exponential spike in serious cases destroys anything achieved over summer... But let’s just hope that is not the UK’s destiny, given how bad the first one was...

Germany seems to have reversed their rise in cases, so let’s hope Britain can do the same! France also seems to have gone down again slightly since the exponential rise last week, although I’m admittedly not sure about Spain or Italy.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Germany seems to have reversed their rise in cases, so let’s hope Britain can do the same! France also seems to have gone down again slightly since the exponential rise last week, although I’m admittedly not sure about Spain or Italy.

There haven’t been any real exponential spikes in Europe yet matey, sure it may look like that as there is around 100x more testing available, but in no country have deaths risen above a 7 day average of 50 per day yet.... Remember when they were hitting around / over 1000 before?

These outbreaks in Europe look scary if you only compare case numbers to the first peak, but they’re really not, every country is doing extremely well at controlling it so far, even in areas that haven’t seen huge numbers before. Hopefully that continues.

 

[Matt N]

Brilliant news! The largest study yet investigating coronavirus antibodies has been conducted upon 30,000 people in Iceland, and the results seem to imply that antibodies stay for a longer period of time than previously indicated, which can only be good news for the future of the pandemic (in terms of immunity, vaccines etc.): https://apple.news/AK_HH7C6hRUuUQ6RxMUYOrg

Good to see that immunity from antibodies seemingly lasts longer than earlier, smaller studies imply!

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Brilliant news! The largest study yet investigating coronavirus antibodies has been conducted upon 30,000 people in Iceland, and the results seem to imply that antibodies stay for a longer period of time than previously indicated, which can only be good news for the future of the pandemic (in terms of immunity, vaccines etc.): https://apple.news/AK_HH7C6hRUuUQ6RxMUYOrg

Good to see that immunity from antibodies seemingly lasts longer than earlier, smaller studies imply!

Those earlier studies were misquoted by media to be fair

They never claimed they only lasted 3 months, they claimed that they lasted ‘at least’ 3 months... They couldn’t test for longer as the infected had only been infected 3 month earlier ?

It is good news though.

I’m more interested in the T-cell / Other Immune responses though to be fair. With more and more people having tested positive for covid, having next to no symptoms, as in fighting it off very successfully later testing negative for antibodies... Some other immune response is playing a huge role, understanding that is extremely important.

this article offers a really good, simplistic view, of what we know so far about covid immune responses... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

 

[Matt N]

Those earlier studies were misquoted by media to be fair

They never claimed they only lasted 3 months, they claimed that they lasted ‘at least’ 3 months... They couldn’t test for longer as the infected had only been infected 3 month earlier ?

It is good news though.

I’m more interested in the T-cell / Other Immune responses though to be fair. With more and more people having tested positive for covid, having next to no symptoms, as in fighting it off very successfully later testing negative for antibodies... Some other immune response is playing a huge role, understanding that is extremely important.

this article offers a really good, simplistic view, of what we know so far about covid immune responses... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

I thought the claims of the original study was that antibodies had waned to an almost non-existent level after 3 months in most of those used in the study?

Regardless, this study is a much larger study, and seemingly proves that immunity is more long-lasting than originally thought.

The original, smaller study apparently wasn’t necessarily wrong, but only examined the “first wave” of antibodies, which did last for a shorter time period. However, the thing that the original study failed to see is that a “second wave” of antibodies is apparently first generated a month or two after infection, with levels increasing drastically for the first 2 months after infection before stabilising somewhat and staying constant for at least 4 months after. So the original study only examined patients for a very short time period, so only picked up on the weaker “first wave” of antibodies, missing out on the stronger “second wave” of antibodies that last for longer.

It’s the first time I’ve ever heard “second wave” used in a positive context, anyway!

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I thought the claims of the original study was that antibodies had waned to an almost non-existent level after 3 months in most of those used in the study?

If you read the link I posted it explains... The earlier studies did indeed show that antibodies had reduced significantly (though the term ‘non-existent’ was never used by anybody, as far as I recall) but this does not mean a reduction in immunity, far from it. In fact the original writer of the study was surprised that the press spun it negatively, as it was meant to highlight the similarities between coronavirus antibodies, their lifespan, and other viruses for which we achieve long term immunity through exposure...

Have a read Matt

 

[Nicky Borrill]

This is HUGE news, I’m honestly stunned that it hasn’t been posted already...

A pair of treatments that are now PROVEN, APPROVED globally and even recommended by the WHO which reduces death by upto and more than a third!!!

Steroids Can Be Lifesaving for Covid-19 Patients, Scientists Report (Published 2020)

New data in hand, the W.H.O. recommended that doctors give the drugs to critically ill patients worldwide.

www.nytimes.com

Coronavirus: Cheap hydrocortisone drug reduces deaths in sickest COVID-19 patients, research finds

The NHS will now use the steroid after studies show it is one of three that saw a 20% reduction in the risk of death.

news.sky.com

 

[Hixee]

I probably won't bother doing a proper trip report (although don't hold me to that), but I'll give my feedback on the Coronavirus measures at the parks I've experienced in Germany this last week.

Tripsdrill
Mask policy - In queues, indoors and on rides (not required for children, but not exactly sure how that is defined). Staff patrolling queues and ride-ops enforcing proper mask usage (must cover nose and mouth).
Social distancing - Reasonable enough effort in queues, shops, restaurants and general areas of the park. No vacant rows on any rides. Park did not feel particularly busy, but wasn't the best day for weather, so not sure if this was a capacity limit or lack of interest.
Sanitiser - Plenty of hand sanitiser stations throughout the park. Trains not 'evidently' being wiped down, but can't guarantee we just didn't see it happening.
Overall - Frankly, as good as it'll get I think. Generally guests were adhering to the policies and appeared to be thoughtful towards others.

Europa Park
Mask policy - In queues, indoors and on rides (not required for children, but not exactly sure how that is defined). Staff patrolling queues and ride-ops enforcing proper mask usage (must cover nose and mouth).
Social distancing - Reasonable enough effort in queues, shops, restaurants and general areas of the park. No vacant rows on any rides, and some ride-ops even filling empty seats with odd-numbered groups. Park was busy, meaning lots of crowded pathways (where masks are optional - we began wearing them everywhere it was even remotely crowded, but at our own choice). Honestly, felt just as busy as it did when we visited three years ago, I can't believe they were limiting numbers in the park.
Sanitiser - Plenty of hand sanitiser stations throughout the park. Trains were being stopped every 15mins or so for a full wipe down.
Overall - Mixed feelings here. Mask policy and sanitisation was good, but the park was busy and lots of people not adhering to the rules until told to by staff (and even then sometimes only temporarily).

Rulantica
Mask policy - Masks must be worn right up to the changing rooms for the waterpark, after that not required.
Social distancing - I mean, sure? It was busy and people sort-of tried their best, but wasn't great.
Sanitiser - Plenty of hand sanitiser stations throughout the waterpark. Rafts/inflatables rinsed between users.
Overall - My summary of this day was "Corona-what?". This truly felt like 'the good old days', and I don't think that's necessarily a positive thing.

Schwaben Park
Mask policy - In queues, indoors and on rides (not required for children, but not exactly sure how that is defined).
Social distancing - Reasonable enough effort in queues, shops, restaurants and general areas of the park. Vacant rows on coaster trains. Park was Dead (with a capital-D) though, so not really sure how it'd hold up on a busier day.
Sanitiser - Only a few of these around the park, but then park is small and they were in the common areas in between rides.
Overall - Given this is a tiny park in the arse-end-of-nowhere with only about two dozen people in the park on the day we were there - this was fine.

EDIT: Will also add the irony (for lack of a better word) of a park like Europa being so close to the French border (you can see it from the creds). I would imagine something like 1/3rd of the guests in the park being French. Funny to me that set foot over that line and you have to quarantine, but mix with loads of people in another country? No problem. Mercifully the regions around Europa (both German and French) are doing okay at the moment, but it's a curious thought. Makes me think the 'region' concept it probably a bit more useful than the arbitrary countries idea we use now.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I probably won't bother doing a proper trip report (although don't hold me to that), but I'll give my feedback on the Coronavirus measures at the parks I've experienced in Germany this last week.

Tripsdrill
Mask policy - In queues, indoors and on rides (not required for children, but not exactly sure how that is defined). Staff patrolling queues and ride-ops enforcing proper mask usage (must cover nose and mouth).
Social distancing - Reasonable enough effort in queues, shops, restaurants and general areas of the park. No vacant rows on any rides. Park did not feel particularly busy, but wasn't the best day for weather, so not sure if this was a capacity limit or lack of interest.
Sanitiser - Plenty of hand sanitiser stations throughout the park. Trains not 'evidently' being wiped down, but can't guarantee we just didn't see it happening.
Overall - Frankly, as good as it'll get I think. Generally guests were adhering to the policies and appeared to be thoughtful towards others.

Europa Park
Mask policy - In queues, indoors and on rides (not required for children, but not exactly sure how that is defined). Staff patrolling queues and ride-ops enforcing proper mask usage (must cover nose and mouth).
Social distancing - Reasonable enough effort in queues, shops, restaurants and general areas of the park. No vacant rows on any rides, and some ride-ops even filling empty seats with odd-numbered groups. Park was busy, meaning lots of crowded pathways (where masks are optional - we began wearing them everywhere it was even remotely crowded, but at our own choice). Honestly, felt just as busy as it did when we visited three years ago, I can't believe they were limiting numbers in the park.
Sanitiser - Plenty of hand sanitiser stations throughout the park. Trains were being stopped every 15mins or so for a full wipe down.
Overall - Mixed feelings here. Mask policy and sanitisation was good, but the park was busy and lots of people not adhering to the rules until told to by staff (and even then sometimes only temporarily).

Rulantica
Mask policy - Masks must be worn right up to the changing rooms for the waterpark, after that not required.
Social distancing - I mean, sure? It was busy and people sort-of tried their best, but wasn't great.
Sanitiser - Plenty of hand sanitiser stations throughout the waterpark. Rafts/inflatables rinsed between users.
Overall - My summary of this day was "Corona-what?". This truly felt like 'the good old days', and I don't think that's necessarily a positive thing.

Schwaben Park
Mask policy - In queues, indoors and on rides (not required for children, but not exactly sure how that is defined).
Social distancing - Reasonable enough effort in queues, shops, restaurants and general areas of the park. Vacant rows on coaster trains. Park was Dead (with a capital-D) though, so not really sure how it'd hold up on a busier day.
Sanitiser - Only a few of these around the park, but then park is small and they were in the common areas in between rides.
Overall - Given this is a tiny park in the arse-end-of-nowhere with only about two dozen people in the park on the day we were there - this was fine.

EDIT: Will also add the irony (for lack of a better word) of a park like Europa being so close to the French border (you can see it from the creds). I would imagine something like 1/3rd of the guests in the park being French. Funny to me that set foot over that line and you have to quarantine, but mix with loads of people in another country? No problem. Mercifully the regions around Europa (both German and French) are doing okay at the moment, but it's a curious thought. Makes me think the 'region' concept it probably a bit more useful than the arbitrary countries idea we use now.

Come on... Do a trip report... You know you want to (not too many opportunities in 2020!)

 

[UP87]

Makes me think the 'region' concept it probably a bit more useful than the arbitrary countries idea we use now.

It depends. You'll always have some arbitrary handling there. But of course it's better to look at smaller regions than states. The EU is more or less kind of one big country. And as far as I know from the German standpoint only parts of France are considered at risk and forcing you into quarantine.

The measures in Germany differ state by state. It makes sense as Corona is a more local phenomenon. But partly it just feels weird how it's handled differently. At least we're past the time where the states wanted to open up again as fast as possible to have an advantage over other states. The management is by far more reasonable now.

@Nicky Borrill
> 20% reduction in the risk of death.
I'd say it's better than nothing - but 20% reduction in the risk of death is not really what I'd consider an effective treatment of an illness.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

@Nicky Borrill
> 20% reduction in the risk of death.
I'd say it's better than nothing - but 20% reduction in the risk of death is not really what I'd consider an effective treatment of an illness.

You should read both (and possibly more) articles... 20% is one of the steroids in one of the trials... Both that steroid and the other (even more so) achieved more than 30% across all trials

Those trials were also performed under strict restrictions, 6mg per day orally for example... I have no doubt whatsoever that those percentages will improve even more once they can dose more freely and appropriately to the individual. Add to that the potential possibility that a patient who is not part of the 36% responding to one option, could respond to the other... (Purely theorising there, have seen no evidence to suggest that is or isn’t possible)

Edit: Incase you can’t be bothered, and since you’ve called me out in an apparent correction... Here is the part about the WHO data collected from all trials

The analysis of pooled data found that steroids were linked with a one-third reduction in deaths among critically ill Covid-19 patients. Dexamethasone produced a 36 percent drop in deaths in 1,282 patients treated in three separate trials.

Hydrocortisone, tested in 374 patients in three trials, appeared to reduce deaths by 31 percent, and a small trial of methylprednisolone in 47 patients resulted in a 9 percent drop in deaths. The analysis was carried out by a W.H.O. working group that is making efforts to rapidly evaluate Covid-19 therapies.

 

[Howie]

I probably won't bother doing a proper trip report

Come on... Do a trip report... You know you want to (not too many opportunities in 2020!)

Yeah come on Matt, do a trip report. We need as many trip reports as we can get at the moment!
Ah go on.
G'waan g'waan g'waan!

 

[UP87]

@Nicky Borrill No, it wasn't meant as a correction. I just think the numbers are good but not amazing and even though I see the progress I'm not yet as enthusiastic as you are. But I didn't have the time to read the full articles so thanks for the quote with the more promising numbers and the information that there is still potential for even higher success rates.

Having efficient treatment for the illness is maybe as important as finding a vaccine. Especially as it's lately somewhat in doubt if immunity persists for a longer time.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

@Nicky Borrill No, it wasn't meant as a correction. I just think the numbers are good but not amazing and even though I see the progress I'm not yet as enthusiastic as you are. But I didn't have the time to read the full articles so thanks for the quote with the more promising numbers and the information that there is still potential for even higher success rates.

Having efficient treatment for the illness is maybe as important as finding a vaccine. Especially as it's lately somewhat in doubt if immunity persists for a longer time.

Yep, for numerous reasons I’m far more excited about treatment options than Vaccines...

Treatments require no minimum uptake to work for starters, the world’s gone crazy and I honestly think there is more than enough antivaxxers in our country and the US to make a vaccine useless in those countries.

This issue is made worse by the fact that even people who would normally take a vaccine are concerned by the time frame being targeted.

Plus, if there’s a question mark over immunity, that same mark lingers over vaccines :/

So yes, I’m very excited... even at just 36% it would have saved over 14,400 lives in the UK and over 68,000 lives in the USA!

Get the Percentage up to over 50% (I hate to even point this out, given the shameful social media campaign / comparisons at the start of the pandemic) Then we really are talking similar rates to a regular Flu Pandemic.

Edit to add some supporting data for that last paragraph, as I recognise it is a controversial thing to say, given the initial miss-information campaign on social media.



Edited again to add: In case any covid conspiracy believers are reading, that even with 50% less deaths, those figures still only equal a flu epidemic WITH other interventions like social distancing!! I really don’t want to give the wrong impression here, whilst I am VERY excited by this news, it is far from the end!!!

 

[davidm]

No surprise, but...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1301858275542134785

IAAPA, the global association for the attractions industry, today announced the cancellation of IAAPA Expo 2020 in Orlando, Florida. In addition, the association is launching a new virtual conference for global attractions industry professionals so that they can take part in many of the education sessions originally planned to take place at IAAPA Expo.

“IAAPA Expo serves as the global marketplace for the attractions industry. We recognize this year there are many challenges facing our members from around the world,” said Hal McEvoy, president and CEO, IAAPA. “Together with input from members, exhibitors, the IAAPA Board of Directors and our team, we have decided to cancel this year’s Expo due to the ongoing impacts of COVID-19. The continuing barriers to international and domestic travel coupled with the evolving guidance on mass gatherings, and members’ need to focus on their businesses helped lead to this decision.”

“While we are disappointed we are unable to meet in-person this year, we are already looking ahead to IAAPA Expo 2021 in Orlando,” McEvoy continued, “We also appreciate the patience, support and commitment from our dedicated IAAPA Expo exhibitors. The IAAPA team has already pivoted to address finding new ways industry manufacturers and suppliers can connect with their customers to promote their products, discover new trends, and make plans for the future.”

 

[Nicky Borrill]

As I expected, Portugal and Greece did escape @JammyH

Does look inevitable they’ll be added at some point very soon if they don’t drastically improve things though.

 

[JammyH]

@Nicky Borrill Portugal has higher rates than Netherlands and similar rates to Austria, which were blocked on arbitrary figures, so you could argue that the decision not to block Portugal but keep Netherlands and Austria blocked is somewhat unfair. But I imagine this was a highly political decision rather than scientific decision as the government didn't want to be seen "u-turning" just a couple of weeks after unblocking Portugal. Greece's 7 day rate is far lower than the UK so they are not particularly at high risk of being blocked, the decision by Scotland and Wales to block them is due to the Tui flight incident with a lot of customers testing positive, so more due to an isolated incident rather than scientific figures.

What I would say is much more concerning however, and links to the travel warning I will make today, is that the UK's rate is now rapidly increasing. Today we sit at a 7 day rate per 100,000 of 15.1. This puts us in danger of being blocked by other countries. I am more concerned now about other countries quarantining us rather than us quarantining them. With office workers going back and schools just gone back, this rate is undoubtedly going to be increasing even more over the next days or weeks. Call me pessimistic, but id say the UK is not far off a Spain/france situation, the government definitely seems to be losing control of the virus again now unlike Italy and Germany who appear to be turning things around. Yes testing has gone up and we are catching more cases, and I don't think there's much chance a second wave would be as severe as the first, but I think cases will start to rise and we are just going to have to deal with more people getting infected, its not going to be fun and I think we are in for a miserable few months ahead.

So yes, whilst its worth keeping an eye on other countries to see whether they could potentially be quarantined by us, I think it is much more important at this point for us to watch our own figures as I think countries could start blocking us within the next couple of weeks if the current trend continues.

(Photo from same source as always)

 

[Nicky Borrill]

@Nicky Borrill Portugal has higher rates than Netherlands and similar rates to Austria, which were blocked on arbitrary figures, so you could argue that the decision not to block Portugal but keep Netherlands and Austria blocked is somewhat unfair. But I imagine this was a highly political decision rather than scientific decision as the government didn't want to be seen "u-turning" just a couple of weeks after unblocking Portugal. Greece's 7 day rate is far lower than the UK so they are not particularly at high risk of being blocked, the decision by Scotland and Wales to block them is due to the Tui flight incident with a lot of customers testing positive, so more due to an isolated incident rather than scientific figures.

What I would say is much more concerning however, and links to the travel warning I will make today, is that the UK's rate is now rapidly increasing. Today we sit at a 7 day rate per 100,000 of 15.1. This puts us in danger of being blocked by other countries. I am more concerned now about other countries quarantining us rather than us quarantining them. With office workers going back and schools just gone back, this rate is undoubtedly going to be increasing even more over the next days or weeks. Call me pessimistic, but id say the UK is not far off a Spain/france situation, the government definitely seems to be losing control of the virus again now unlike Italy and Germany who appear to be turning things around. Yes testing has gone up and we are catching more cases, and I don't think there's much chance a second wave would be as severe as the first, but I think cases will start to rise and we are just going to have to deal with more people getting infected, its not going to be fun and I think we are in for a miserable few months ahead.

So yes, whilst its worth keeping an eye on other countries to see whether they could potentially be quarantined by us, I think it is much more important at this point for us to watch our own figures as I think countries could start blocking us within the next couple of weeks if the current trend continues.

(Photo from same source as always)

View attachment 9634

I think it’s just a simple case of they haven’t been ‘back up’ long enough. It’s my understanding that they have to trend above the threshold for a minimum of 7 days, Portugal got lucky there in that they had only been above for 5 or 6 days on Thursday... That’s why I was so confident earlier in the thread that they wouldn’t be added this week (and had hoped they had time to turn it around long term, although that now looks unlikely.)

As for the rest, I’ll worry when our deaths per day creep back towards triple figures, the same for any country to be honest. I’d be happy to visit anywhere (if permitted) consistently getting less than 2 deaths per 1M population per day, as that means their real world active case numbers are much less than ours when we started to open back up

(On 1st June when we started to open back up we were still hitting an average of 3.19 deaths per 1M population per day... Or 211 deaths per day total... Viewed in that light it’s easy to see why many folk really aren’t that worried yet)