Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

[Professor]

In Munich they have cancelled Oktoberfest.
Somewhat surprised at that. I guess there is a big worry with a second wave etc. I'm not so sure that will happen, especially not over the summer months.

Still hoping theme parks will have most of their summer season.
Every death is tragic but it does look like the outlook with how this virus is spreading is perhaps a bit less bleak than it was even just a few days ago.

 

[Matt N]

I think that there's a good chance of theme parks still being able to have a decent summer season, albeit with some measures in place. I also have my suspicions that appetite could be higher than normal following an extended lockdown, so a good Q3 & Q4 could potentially offset some of the losses from Q1 & Q2!

In terms of long-term levels of impact on the industry, I'm predicting that all should be back to a reasonable degree of normality in terms of attendance by 2022 at the latest. I read a report done estimating attendance to Walt Disney World following the pandemic, and that estimated normal attendance returning by 2022 in a worst case scenario, so I'd suggest that while 2020 will probably be a write-off, 2021 will probably have normality restored to an extent, especially seeing as a vaccine could very well be widely available by early 2021 if some estimates are anything to go by.

 

[Hyde]

Apparently Disney anticipates closures of no longer than 6 months:

Disney Doesn't Anticipate A Closure of More Than 6 Months

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

However, there's also modelling that anticipates Florida could relax its social distancing measures from 1st June, so maybe we could see Walt Disney World begin to reopen on this date: https://blogmickey.com/2020/04/upda...eak-and-can-relax-social-distancing-june-1st/

Considering Florida never created strict social distancing protocol in the first place.

 

[CSLKennyNI]

Following in the foot steps of Fort Fun in Germany; Holiday Park have also teamed up with a local pop-up car cinema group to use their car park for film screenings as an alternative entertainment offering while the park is closed.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=115457300128939&id=109624784045524

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I expect a lot of masks to be lying around on both sides of Intamin launch tracks and none next to the Mack ones in that case.

Really question if we will be going down this route though in Europe and in the USA. I can see a lot of people objecting to this. Maybe people wearing masks in mass transit (as some already are doing now). But do you really expect people to wear a mask whilst in a theme park, on a ride, in a pub, in a cinema?

Don’t mean to sound patronising here, but have you ever worn a filtered mask? They’re very tight fitting, they have to be or they don’t work. There is no way mine is coming off, not even on Taron... And mine is a cheap chinese reusable one with replaceable filters.

Edited to add: don’t forget the most common ‘public’ use of these types of masks is to filter out pollution when riding motorbikes...

 

[shawnoc]

Yeah sounds like you have a P3 mask, they are for large particles I.e dust and things like that, not bacterial particles. It’s not going to stop all viruses if any.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Yeah sounds like you have a P3 mask, they are for large particles I.e dust and things like that

FFP3... But I doubt it’s actually up to standard... If it were, it would be a proven barrier against catching the virus as FFP3 is the type approved by WHO and the NHS. But as I said, I doubt it is actually up to that standard, chinese knockoff... So I consider it to be a simple face covering.

Face coverings cannot be relied on for preventing people from ‘catching’ the virus, as only certified respirators are proven to do that if used properly. But any face covering may reduce the amount of droplets and aerosols released by somebody with the virus, be they symptomatic or asymptomatic. They may also reduce the range of particles which are released. Any upper hand we can get...

Ignore the fact it’s the daily fail... It’s being reported everywhere, but the fail don’t have a pay wall... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ding-doctors-call-public-wear-home-masks.html

 

[Ethan]

People seem to forgot that no matter what you wrap around your face (mask, scarf, fabric etc), if you touch it with a dirty hand, you've just rendered it useless straight away. I see so many people at work touching surfaces all over the place whilst wearing a scarf or mask, and then just put their dirty hands directly on their mouth, over the mask. I think many assume that they are protected by a face covering, and that they can let their guard down. Not saying anyone here thinks this, but it does seem very common.

 

[Professor]

Don’t mean to sound patronising here, but have you ever worn a filtered mask? They’re very tight fitting, they have to be or they don’t work. There is no way mine is coming off, not even on Taron... And mine is a cheap chinese reusable one with replaceable filters.

Edited to add: don’t forget the most common ‘public’ use of these types of masks is to filter out pollution when riding motorbikes...

Yes I have worn dust masks for small DIY jobs to protect from sawdust / sanding etc, the type that you put around your head with two elastic bands so that they sit quite securely indeed. But it wouldn't exactly be a pleasant experience wearing that a whole day in a theme park from what I remember.

But where does it state Theme Parks would be issuing filtered masks? The only suggestion I have seen from the likes of Energylandia so far just seems to be a face cloth that appears to be secured by your... ears? Doubt it could withstand an 80mph launch in 2.3 seconds if you happen to turn your head side ways. If people can lose their spectacles or £1000 iPhones on Stealth which I've seen happen, I'm sure they can lose a badly secured face cloth. ?



To be fair I probably panic more than not over wearing things on coasters. I see many people just wear sunglasses on many rides. Even sunglasses lodged into my girlfriend's hair at the top stayed in place on The Big One, which I was really surprised about. She forgot all about them.
Crazy Bats was the first VR coaster I had done and I was worried the entire headset would fly off during the ride, so kept holding onto it. The second go I was at the back so literally didn't care and indeed it did stay in place making the ride more comfortable and entertaining but still not exactly pleasant.

But a simple face cloth like the Energylandia ear one... Hmm, mostly probably ok for most rides but still think it's going to be a constant thing of people losing them and needing replacements I would have thought, certainly on extreme rides.

 

[SimonProD]

Press conference with the major of Munich made it now official that Oktoberfest is cancelled. A suggestion by showmen to run it only with rides was also turned down. As major fairs in the summer were also cancelled during the last days it is expected that many showmen will go into bancruptcy and we will see many rides not returning. Same likely true for independently owned hotels.

 

[UP87]

According to the Verband Deutscher Freizeitparks und Freizeitunternehmen (VDFU / Association of German Amusement Parks and Leisure Enterprises) about 40 percent of the german theme parks are in danger of bankruptcy. They add that especially parks with animals can't reduce their costs while there are no visitors. The association considers an amusement park not an event and thus they should not be forbidden as big events are in Germany until the end of august. They hope that the local governments manage to find some regulations that enable the parks to open soon.

 

[JammyH]

Press conference with the major of Munich made it now official that Oktoberfest is cancelled. A suggestion by showmen to run it only with rides was also turned down. As major fairs in the summer were also cancelled during the last days it is expected that many showmen will go into bancruptcy and we will see many rides not returning. Same likely true for independently owned hotels.

I got the notification on my phone from the app this morning. I was shocked.

And not shocked because the Wiesn is cancelled, as I always knew it was jeopardy, however more-so that it was cancelled so early on. Obviously planning, preparations and setup will take months for the event, I'm just surprised it was banned completely so early on without even considerations of a downscale for locals only. It was never going to be able to be an international event this year.

Looking at UK fairs, Hoppings is already gone in June. Wiesn being cancelled has made me more of a realist in this situation now. I fully expect major backend fairs in the UK, Oxford st Giles, Goose fair and Hull fair to be cancelled and I highly doubt links market will be able to reschedule the dates for this year. I think Hyde Park Winter Wonderland has a high chance of not going ahead this year as it starts only 2 months after the Wiesn and is an international affair.

I don't think anyone will be traveling anywhere internationally until next year, however with the theme parks I believe that they will probably open up in individual countries over summer, perhaps in July or August, with strict social distancing measures in place. Without international travel between countries it means the situation can be better controlled within each country and that the leisure industries can start to operate again. I heard something the other day that people in Europe are likely to be able to have a summer vacation "within their own country" however not abroad this year. So I would personally hold off booking anything now until next year.

Even if Disney can open, they will struggle to make a solid turnover as they rely heavily on internationals and I don't think any foreigners will be going into the U.S. until at least 2021. I also think the situation in the US is really just getting started and the worst is yet to come, so I don't anticipate the parks in America being open for a fair few months, and even when they can reopen, I imagine most people will stay away as going to a theme park in the current climate is a massive risk and potentially puts yourself and your family at jeopardy.

 

[Nitefly]

It is ultimately pretty tedious to argue that theme parks are not ‘mass gatherings’. Many people from all over a country (with international visitors) all in the same place and often in close proximity (queues and ride vehicles).

I think it’s unlikely that they will open so long as anything considered to be a ‘mass gathering’ if discouraged, regardless of whether they are ‘an event’ (which is a pretty redundant distinction for the purposes of containing the spread - save that all events are presumably mass gatherings).

 

[UP87]

Well... I think it depends... I think an amusement park which is mainly focussed on attractions is a lot easier to manage than a concert or the Oktoberfest. It should really easier to manage the crowds and guarantee some distancing. Oktoberfest is not only attractions and rides but a lot of alcohol and social gatherings. Concerts and festivals are basically just a pile of people by definition. Compared to a theme park this is just another level. I don't consider a theme park an event or a mass gathering myself.

Germany just opened up some stores yesterday. We'll have to wait if and how that shows up in the numbers before any new decisions are made. After all I'm all in favor of more testing. I don't see any real attempt to figure out the real number of cases. Lately I overheard the idea that politicians might not be really keen in getting the numbers as it might become to much of a "some lifes vs the whole economy" discussion - especially if the mortality rate is below 1% or something.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

It is ultimately pretty tedious to argue that theme parks are not ‘mass gatherings’. Many people from all over a country (with international visitors) all in the same place and often in close proximity (queues and ride vehicles).

I think it’s unlikely that they will open so long as anything considered to be a ‘mass gathering’ if discouraged, regardless of whether they are ‘an event’ (which is a pretty redundant distinction for the purposes of containing the spread - save that all events are presumably mass gatherings).

I agree with you in theory, however, in practice, the WHO define mass gatherings as ‘events attended by a sufficient number of people to potentially strain the public health resources of the community, city, or nation hosting the event.’

Which is why I think that no ban on theme parks was introduced at the same time as bans on mass gatherings in many countries, because theme parks do not really fall into that description.

However I wouldn’t be surprised if many governments revise their stance on mass gatherings to include theme parks, thus meaning they stay closed until mass gatherings are permitted. I’m still not expecting theme parks to open in the UK until June / July.

Something similar to this was one of the proposals suggested to the UK government by a member of the science advisory council, as reported on the BBC a couple of nights ago.



It was also reported in the papers.

Ministers plan for schools to reopen in three weeks

Senior ministers have drawn up a three-phase plan to lift the coronavirus lockdown that would see schools reopen as early as May 11.Under “traffic light” proposals to be presented to Boris Johnson when he returns to work, schools would reopen in three weeks’ time, with pupils of different age groups

www.thetimes.co.uk

Edited to add: before this causes too much debate, this was, I believe, just one of many ideas, and not in any way the final plan.

 

[JammyH]

I don't think there's much point in the school's reopening really. They will be open for what, a month, a month and a half? And then you have to consider lots of new staff might have to be trained especially things like food caterers and cleaners as they are sometimes foreign and potentially have returned to their home countries. I understand it takes the pressure off parents having to look after their kids at home, but this virus could spread like wildfire in a school environment, especially with younger kids not understanding the need for social distancing.

Also as all exams have been cancelled I don't really see the point. Makes more sense to go back in September in my opinion.

I agree with small non essentials and hairdressers opening as the first partial lift, but I think face masks should be required in all public spaces including supermarkets, not just on public transport.

I also highly doubt pubs will opening in June. I don't expect any pubs, clubs or concerts/festivals to be running at all until this is all over. Pubs will be full of drunk people not sticking to social distancing rules.

 

[SimonProD]

Face masks are required here starting next week in most states. Problem is you can buy a cloth mask for €10 a piece at a local store or wait for 6-8 week for amazon to deliver 5 pieces for €10. Its already assumed the poeple will storm the supermarkets the next days to get 2-3 week food supply so they don't have to go shopping until face masks are finally available.

I raided my old first aid kits from former cars to fold and use triangular bandages as face masks until the regular ones oredered online arrive. Luckily my state ruled that banadages or shawls are okay also.

This wil only normalize in 4-6 weeks when face masks from China or Bangladesh will flood the market - but those first have to arrive by ship...

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I don't think there's much point in the school's reopening really. They will be open for what, a month, a month and a half? And then you have to consider lots of new staff might have to be trained especially things like food caterers and cleaners as they are sometimes foreign and potentially have returned to their home countries. I understand it takes the pressure off parents having to look after their kids at home, but this virus could spread like wildfire in a school environment, especially with younger kids not understanding the need for social distancing.

Also as all exams have been cancelled I don't really see the point. Makes more sense to go back in September in my opinion.

I agree with small non essentials and hairdressers opening as the first partial lift, but I think face masks should be required in all public spaces including supermarkets, not just on public transport.

I also highly doubt pubs will opening in June. I don't expect any pubs, clubs or concerts/festivals to be running at all until this is all over. Pubs will be full of drunk people not sticking to social distancing rules.

Think I agree on the school thing to be honest. I don’t see the point unless it’s part of a coordinated strategy to increase infection rates amongst those at least risk, but they keep denying that so...

As for Pubs, June is a long way off, almost 2 months, they have to reopen them at some point. Also there has been some discussion as to how you can separate pubs from restaurants these days, as many pubs are more restaurant, and likewise many restaurants are licensed. It’s been suggested that wet led / wet only pubs, that’s pubs who do very little or no food, will be the last to open, and food pubs may be allowed to open with restaurants slightly earlier. But honesty, nobody knows, remember this is just one ‘IDEA’ and I personally do not think they’re going to commit to such a structured plan this far out, too much can change too quickly.

 

[SimonProD]

City of Berlin has banned all events until October 24th.

The Munich breweries encourage evryone to indulge Oktoberfest-Bier by the bottle as the beer is already brewing and the liters not used on the fair will be bottled!

 

[Professor]

Some updates with regards to what's happening in The Netherlands according to sources:

Schools will open on May 11th, albeit with probable restrictions, still to be determined. Half class sizes possibly.
Bars and restaurants will not open before May 19th but could be later, still to be determined.
Large events will not go ahead till 1st of September earliest.

I'm hoping theme parks will not have to wait THAT long to open, Walibi Holland and Toverland would probably run into financial difficulty. But it does seem in line with what is happening in Germany, not allowing funfairs till the end of August.
Personally I think the cancellation of Oktoberfest in Munich at this point is jumping the gun a bit, but it is what it is.

No word on Zoos (yet) but surely they wouldn't have to wait till September either as people are usually quite spread out most of the time. Hopefully in late May or June in The Netherlands latest but could be before theme parks. It would make sense I think. Some Zoos in Germany have already re-opened apparently.