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Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
California mass gatherings potentially banned until 2021. Again, parks are in that grey area but that's quite a big deal in general if that goes ahead.
Wonder how that could be policed in Disneyland. They couldn't even stop a fight in Toontown.

I think such a ban is almost impossible for so long.
 

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
They won't police it. Depending on the exact wording of the ban the most likely option is they won't be able to open Disneyland until the ban is over.
This would cost Disney billions if that were the case till 2021. I just can't see it happening.

Netflix today became a bigger company than Disney. Astonishing.
 

Nicky Borrill

Strata Poster
what that article and study actually says is that the UK’s identified cases only account for 1.2% of our actual cases, and as it’s a relatively older piece... That NOW means that they think around 7,822,750 have contracted the virus in the UK...

This is a significant percentage, around or just under 12% and enough to reduce the impact of any second wave... Even more so when you consider that in a few weeks, when this wave bottoms out that figure will be doubled.

Thank’s for sharing this... It is precisely what I have (very poorly) been trying to point out. An immunity level over 25% and common sense behaviour, should easily be enough to prevent a significant second wave.

Now what I’m wondering is this, if they think Germany has 15% immunity, with their testing rates compared to ours, I don’t understand why they think we have less... They have done three times more tests per 1M people, yet only have less than 50% more confirmed tests than ourselves... Proving we’re hitting more positive tests results per 100 tests than they are! Ours will be higher IMO!!!
I haven't trusted anything that has come out of Oxford university since the start of this outbreak. They had at least 6 students confirmed with the virus yet the university was still operating as normal. They then come out and say that half the British population could have been infected by the virus, and then that they are "80% sure" they will have a vaccine ready by September, when other major researchers are estimating 12-18 months for a widespread vaccine. I'd take everything you read with a pinch of salt.

The figures I am trusting at the moment are the ones from the German scientists, and the ones from the UK Covid-19 symptom tracker app developed by Kings College London.

The COVID 19 symptom tracker app developed by KCL estimates that currently 1.4 million people in the UK have symptomatic COVID 19, whereas on the 1st April they estimated 1.9 million UK citizens had symptomatic Covid 19, which shows that the lockdown is slowly reducing the spread. However, we are going to have to stay in lockdown for a while longer to really push down that number. Remember this is excluding people who are carrying the virus asymptomatically, which could be anywhere from 10-50%, which means there is a potential for 2.8 million people currently infected at this one time, and then we have to consider the virus will have been in the country since late December/early Jan as the outbreak started at the beginning of December in wuhan.

The German scientists believe that the world already has a 15% immunity rate against the virus, and we would need 60-70% for the virus to completely disappear and achieve "herd immunity", which has been heavily talked about. The German scientists believe that as the UK is only testing the NHS and hospitalised cases, that the UK testing regime is only picking up 1.2% of all cases of coronavirus. Our official number of cases stands at 93, 873 so after doing some math that would predict that in reality the following number of people in the UK now have antibodies against coronavirus:

7,822,750.

The UK has a population of 66.65 million and therefore this would estimate that the UK currently has an immunity rate of about 12%. However this will be increasing by the day as even though remember we are in "lockdown", the virus is still spreading day upon day.

The amount of deaths from this has been truly devastating, reported at 128,000 now, but in reality it will be much higher than that as China presumably lied about the number of their deaths as they are way lower than any European country, and the outbreak would have undoubtedly been just as bad in china. Assuming the German scientists are roughly right and estimating a death rate of 0.37%, that means at least 35 million people have been infected, but in reality it could be around 200million infections so far.

Your sums match up with mine. :)

There are 2 known ways of reducing, and eventually preventing the spread of this virus. Social distancing, which is / could be just temporary, once measures are lifted, it could return. Or heard immunity, either via vaccine or natural immunity through previous infection. A much longer term solution, but unfortunately the natural route means a large amount of deaths in the short term. So... a combination of both is what I believe many countries, including the UK, have opted for.

Just a little bit on ‘heard immunity.’ It is true that herd immunity itself cannot be achieved until we reach 60% infected, as any level lower than this is not called herd immunity. However, a reduction in transmission rates or R0 (reproductive rates) as it is known can be achieved with lower percentages.

Essentially, to reach full herd immunity, that R0, the number of new people an infected person passes the disease onto, needs to reach 1.0 or lower. At present, without any intervention, the R0 is said to be around 2.25. So every person with covid will infect a further 2.25 people. If 60% of the people that person meets are already immune, that rate comes down to around 0.9. This means instead of the infection rates growing, they will shrink, essentially eliminating the virus.

If, as these studies predict, a minimum of 25% are eventually immune at the end of our first wave. That R0 comes down to around 1.6875... Couple that with basic social distancing and common sense measures, hand hygiene, indoor spacing, possibly even masks, and that R0 will be even lower... Maybe even lower than R0 1.0 slowing the spread and eventually eliminating the virus. Because all the while, with each new case, immunity levels are rising.

Ultimately, whilst the loss of life, and pain, that this causes is heart breaking, and some countries appear to have (for now) avoided that. In the long run, those countries with the higher infection rates will come out of this in a stronger position, and will need less draconian measures in place moving forward.

The negative here for the UK is that we just don’t bloody know for sure how many people have been infected!!!! We only have study based estimates, not data confirmed by testing... This is because we only have antigen tests, which show who is currently infected, and our capacity for that is shocking... We need antibody tests now, which test for immunity, indicating a previous infection, and we need to TEST TEST TEST!!!

Just an average idiot’s understanding of the situation ;)

——————

Now back on topic... I found it odd that, in many places, theme parks were not initially closed down as bans on mass gatherings were put into place. I presume it’s due to the space involved. At concerts and sports events you sit / stand, within less than 0.5M of several people for an extended period of time, often indoors. Whereas theoretically, at a theme park, it can be better managed.
 

Youngster Joey

Strata Poster
This would cost Disney billions if that were the case till 2021. I just can't see it happening.

Netflix today became a bigger company than Disney. Astonishing.

Yes it would. However depending on how California chooses to handle this pandemic they may not have a choice in the matter. The governor of Florida on the other hand seems much more likely to allow WDW to open up sooner. It's just a matter of what the governors and states where these parks reside choose to do moving forward. All the parks obviously would like to re-open as soon as possible but that decision is out of their hands.
 

SimonProD

Mega Poster
This morning they had the Chancellor's Minister on breakfast tv in Germany and he said that the main reasoning behind all actions right now is to aviod large crowds inside cities - thats why major department or electronic stores remain closed. While not mentioned I assume this also affects themparks - there can be no queues or filled midways. What was mentioned that the Aug 31st ban on events includes funfairs - but I also assume that themeparks will fall under the same.

The seoncd biggest funfair the Düsseldorf Rheinkirmes in mid-July is therefor cancelled. Also Oktoberfest normally starts construction also in mid-July - at the moment I think there is a high chance this will be cancelled, too. On themeparks honestly at the moment I see them opening next year - assuming all make it that far without revenue.

Some parks who were always on the financial edge like Geiselwind or Belantis might close for good very soon...

It was also said that Restaurants, Bars, Clubs, etc. will remain closed for a long time.
 

CSLKennyNI

Giga Poster
How funfairs and theme parks can be managed in terms of crowds, guest flow and spacing in queuelines is very different. For parks it all still up in the air - decision to be made if possible at the next lockdown review meeting on 30th April along with all other leisure facilities.

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Europa Park off the back of the announcement of the gradual exit strategy yesterday have stated they remain closed until further notice awaiting the decision.
 

Matt N

CF Legend
The government's big stimulus announcements for businesses would surely help the parks to at least an extent, wouldn't it?
 

Nicky Borrill

Strata Poster
The government's big stimulus announcements for businesses would surely help the parks to at least an extent, wouldn't it?
No... They were focused on businesses like mine, as we were the first to be closed, we’re deemed the highest risk, and will be the last to reopen because of this... Pubs, bars, restaurants and clubs... The help they’ve given us will be about enough for us to survive for 10 to 12 weeks. They expected a much shorter period of disruption for other sectors, and assumed larger businesses in these sectors would get by for those shorter periods with just the offer of loans and staff wages paid.
 

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
The government's big stimulus announcements for businesses would surely help the parks to at least an extent, wouldn't it?
A lot of this seems to be focused on just more debt which I'd imagine isn't always a good thing.

Wonder also what the massive increase in UK banks' overdraft charges was about end of last year / beginning of this year. I never use it but noticed on one account my overdraft allowance decreased over a thousand pounds without much warning. Seemed as if they knew a storm was coming. I know some of that has been frozen etc but considering how much they were given for bailouts themselves their attitude during this just seems to be quite parasitic to me. I expect many businesses including some theme parks will not survive if this continues for months and banks will not help as much as they could.

In the end I wonder if it is going to be worth it because we are most likely going to have to have some form of exit strategy that just means we will have to live alongside this virus regardless. I agree with this flattening the curve stuff but at the same time the cost to so many lives mentally and physically is going to be monumental if we are talking months of lockdown.

I also don't like the monopoly that supermarkets have. I need to buy a new sheet for my bed. Why am I forced to either buy online, in a physical supermarket and cannot go to my local Dunelm Mill?
To me such a product is a necessity and supermarkets are wrongfully given a monopoly. My local Pets at home is managing social distancing fine by allowing only a handful of people in the shop and I suspect Dunelms could do something like that too. In The Netherlands I understand many shops are still open.

I suspect there will be 3 weeks of more lockdown announced today taking us to the day before the bank holiday VE day celebration on May 8th. If we have more lockdown for all shops etc after that I think people are going to get extremely frustrated. I think in May there should be some more flexibility for shops to reopen and other businesses following suit the months after.
Not sure it's worth schools even reopening before the summer holidays though.

Keeping everything closed to 2021 and thinking a new year will magically mean the virus is gone I reckon is wishful thinking and would thus somewhat pointlessly destroy so much that we have. I'm not so sure about this herd immunity stuff. If figures out of China are to believed they seem to claim to have eradicated the virus rather than that people are immune to it.
 
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cookie

Giga Poster
Hansa Park has also said that they're waiting for clarification from the government and that any already purchased 2020 season passes will be valid for a number of days in 2021 comparable to how long they have to stay closed this year (so for example, if the park lost 90 days of operation this year, the pass would be valid for 90 days into the 2021 operating season).
 

Nicky Borrill

Strata Poster
View attachment 8142
Update to Europa Park website today. Worth waiting for something official from the government at the end of the month.
Even I, the resident optimist, think that’s probably too soon, especially for the UK...

Wonder what parks will do about catering, bars etc if they are to open up before pubs and restaurants (who should be last) here in the UK. What were the ones that were still open after the restaurants closed in the UK doing before the lockdown? Did they close all bars and dine in options?
 

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
Wonder if the funfair industry will cope with all this considering many summer ones across the UK, Germany and Netherlands are already cancelled even right up to the end of August with ones later in the year already at risk. I don't go to them very often but thought Hoppings last year was superb. The Mach 5 booster was better than some coasters I've done and Ice jet was by far the best matterhorn. Far better than the one that was at Hyde Park Winter Wonderland, which was boring in comparison. Olympia Looping and Ice Mountain were excellent.
 

JammyH

Hyper Poster
Wonder if the funfair industry will cope with all this considering many summer ones across the UK, Germany and Netherlands are already cancelled even right up to the end of August with ones later in the year already at risk. I don't go to them very often but thought Hoppings last year was superb. The Mach 5 booster was better than some coasters I've done and Ice jet was by far the best matterhorn. Far better than the one that was at Hyde Park Winter Wonderland, which was boring in comparison. Olympia Looping and Ice Mountain were excellent.
Hoppings has already been cancelled. Goose fair, Hull and winter wonderland continue planning and preparation full steam ahead for now.
 

Matt N

CF Legend
I had a thought; if parks open with reduced capacity, like what Plopsa is suggesting, would parks start charging more in order to recoup the same amount of money as they would during regular operations, or will they just take a profit hit until there's a vaccine?
 

Nicky Borrill

Strata Poster
Hoppings has already been cancelled. Goose fair, Hull and winter wonderland continue planning and preparation full steam ahead for now.
I’m on a self imposed ban from HPWW anyway... My head took about 4 days to recover last time, all those bars, the tipi bar, carousel bars, bar hutte, bavarian village... they’re all so much fun and far too tempting... Especially when you don’t usually drink ??

You do highlight a good point though, many large events that are way off have been cancelled already, not because they think the event cannot legally go ahead, but because they take months of planning and construction which can’t take place... The perfect example is Glastonbury. Wonder if any of these huge fairs around sept / oct will fall victim to that.
 

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
Rule number one for figures out of China: don't believe figures out of China.
Well indeed, I do not believe it all unless they literally shot 10s of thousands of people in the second half of February or had a magic cure they are not sharing with the world.

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