Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

[SimonProD]

As funfairs continue to be forbidden now as infection cases rise again, showmen assosiations in Germany begin to organize temprary "Funfair Themeparks". These are located in city parks normally used for regular funfairs. One current example is https://ibbi.land/ in Northrhine-Westphaliate. This "park" will as of now continue to operate until August 30th.

The differences to funfairs are - here by exmaple IbbiLand:

• Gated/Fenced area
• Entrance Fee €10 for which you get tokens to use on food and rides
• Visitors have to enter their contact data upon arrival
• Max. 1.500 visitors any time

Photo report on German funfair site: Jahrmarkt Nord

 

[Hyde]

For those who haven't seen it, Covid-19: The Musical ?

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Quick question with a hint of speculation and a dash of theory.

I said months ago in this very thread that if the likes of Alton Towers were allowed to open by July, they could actually end up having a more profitable season.

My reasoning at the time was based on my own uninformed theory / assumption that the early months make very little profit for them, and could in fact be a loss leader allowing the park to prepare for busier months.

Even I hadn’t accounted for what we’ve seen there since!!!

Sold out days all over the place, including mid weeks. Restrictions on annual pass numbers meaning they’re booked up weeks in advance. Ultimately leading to more gate tickets being purchased. Despite limits on annual passes, the park feels as busy every mid week day as it usually would on a weekend day.

The same (more or less) has applied on my mid week visits to other parks... It’s like a weekend every day at BPB for example.

My questions are:

If this continues could it be that the major parks will actually end up making more profit this year?

And also, do we think that because of this, and the trend towards staycations being predicted to last until at least 2022 we may see SW9 still within the usual 4-5 year timeframe

 

[Professor]

If this continues could it be that the major parks will actually end up making more profit this year?

And also, do we think that because of this, and the trend towards staycations being predicted to last until at least 2022 we may see SW9 still within the usual 4-5 year timeframe

1) Possibly but I think they will do well just to break even. I think some parks are clearly trying to claw back as much as they can now. I don't blame them. People who are constantly moaning on socials that they are too busy so soon shouldn't be going themselves instead of blaming the rest of the world constantly.
2) Probably, but it will last beyond 2022 and be good for the theme park industry in the medium term I reckon.
It will make a difference for the likes of Blackpool Pleasure Beach the most I think with continued more takings at weekends especially as many flock back to the likes of Blackpool for multi day stays in favour of going to Spain, more late night riding on Saturdays (perhaps every weekend next year in July & August) and big increases in revenue at the hotels (I saw Saturday normal Big Blue rooms go for £140-150 and still sell out - almost London prices).
With regards to Blackpool South Beach in general I have been following some of the changes with interest. Major plots of old derelict B&Bs are being converted to modern apartments. This can not be underestimated what change that will bring. I have even discussed purchasing a holiday apartment there with my gf. I won't be the only one. Some money definitely (that left to Spain over the last 20 years) will come back to Blackpool in the next 5 years as a result of Covid 19 I suspect. Brexit may cause the Brits expat Spanish holiday villa stuff to take a backburner too. Some renewed British coastal interest could mean parks located there to do better than they have been over the next 5 years.

Merlin will probably do well as you indicated. Drayton Manor may see better times too. But I fully expect that only one of these three biggies will actually build a new coaster within the next 5 years: Blackpool Pleasure Beach. The others (certainly now that Drayton is under the Looping Group) and Merlin's reluctance to do anything will continue and thus no major rides there at all. Flamingo already has the 10 looper and Paultons still has the Storm Chaser spinner to open in 2021. I guess a park like Paultons MAY build a family GCI like Heidi next, at least I hope so since the Mack family spinner looks a bit tame from test footage we have seen. I doubt it will be as fast as Dwervelwind onboard. It looks slower for sure. Would Pautons consider building a hotel in the future? It seems like an ideal area if that is possible.

Some nonsense future predictions as I'm bored:
Blackpool Pleasure Beach
2021:

• Possibly reintroducing walk around park cheap prices thus scanning your phone at each ride along with the system they have now. This will be a disaster with people not being able to scan on late night ridings with empty phone batteries, and BPB will not see major increase in re-introducing walk around I bet since it will have sort of disappeared out of people's minds that it is even possible over the next 4 months. There will be no need for it with enough interest in the full park prices I predict.
• Valhalla reopens in July 2021
• Every Saturday is late night riding in July & August.

2022: Walk around removed again, single theme park style entry from now on.
2023: Grand National is closed for most of the year. Massive overhaul. Bowladrome and Planet Rock removed, building site for new coaster.
2024 Mack Extreme Spinning coaster opens in space of Bowladrome, Planet Rock, small car park and mouse (goes over pathways twice for some type of inversion in mouse area most likely)
2025 Nothing special

Paultons Park
2021: Tornado Springs & Storm Chaser open.
2022: Nothing special maybe some Peppa Pig stuff.
2023: Nothing special maybe some Peppa Pig stuff.
2024: Nothing special maybe some Peppa Pig stuff.
2025: Tornado Springs is expanded to include a clone of Heidi The Ride

Alton Towers:
2021 Same as now, no major change in rides or opening times - David Walliams makes an appearance, Merlin happy with extra interest from young family market. Decision is to keep rest of park as is for foreseeable future.
2022 Same as now, no major change in rides or opening times
2023 Same as now, no major change in rides or opening times
2024 Same as now, no major change in rides or opening times
2025 Same as now, no major change in rides or opening times. New coaster announced and site cleared

Chessington
2021 Microscopic drop tower opens
2022 Nothing major
2023 Nothing major
2024 Nothing major
2025 Nothing major

Drayton Manor:
2021: Same
2022: Possible child friendly flat ride in space of G Force
2023: Same + flat ride - Shockwave closes during the year
2024: Same + flat ride minus shockwave
2025: Same + flat ride minus Shockwave - Apocalypse closes

Thorpe Park:
2021 Same as now + Black mirror experience. No one cares and it doesn't come back again.
2022 Same as now - Derren Brown reopens
2023 Same as now + Derren Brown - flat ride removed during close season. Some nonsense beach stuff with "celebrities". No one cares.
2024 Same as now + Derren Brown minus a flat ride, More Loggers' Leap mess removed, area partially cleared. CF members get knickers in twist over hope of new coaster but nothing announced.
2025 Same as now + Derren Brown minus a flat ride and another flat ride removed. New coaster announced.

Lightwater Valley
2021 Ultimate and Raptor closed permanently
2022 LWV's final season

Pleasurewood Hills - Same as is till 2025
Oakwood - Same as is till 2025

So I predict 2 new unannounced major coasters up till 2025 in the UK and 3 major ones retiring.

Abroad in Europe:

• Parks like PortaVentura and Liseberg are having a terrible time and will need years to recover from Covid 19 so I expect nothing major there except hotel at Liseberg possibly if that is still a goer.
• Grona Lund - Blue Harvest opens 2021. They will have a good year next year probably.
• Parc Asterix will see the Intamin Blitz open in 2023
• 2021 Walibi Belgium will see Intamin mega coaster open
• 2021/2022 Plopsaland De Panne will see Extreme Mack spinner open. This will be a big success. Blackpool Pleasure Beach will take note along with Mack suggesting that for their next project.
• Efteling is doing ok so we will see the Intamin family quad bike launcher there I suspect in 2023/24. I don't believe the 2021 RCDB listing. Hope it's Intamin indeed. They are still farting around with permissions over the land for it so who knows.
• Walibi Holland I think will make do with what it has till 2025. A GCI woodie there would be nice but giving they just converted their Robin Hood that will never happen probably. Maybe an RMC raptor would do well there eventually.
• Toverland is massively overstretched debt wise (Loopings reported 50 million Euro) so I don't expect anything major to happen. They may need new investors.
• Disney Paris will see the new areas open in the studios park but nothing major will be added that we don't know about till 2025. Also having a difficult time with only Disney doing well with online stuff now. It seems they may even pull some of the cinema stuff in favour of streaming. Cinemas in the UK will suffer and I suspect Cineworld may collapse. I am a bit unsure if Rock N Roller is set to become Iron Man completely with existing track OR that is actually a new coaster. Someone must know. No other coaster than Iron Man till 2025 I bet.
• Not too knowledgable about German parks. Only been to Phantasialand. I can't see that getting anything major after FLY. But perhaps plans to make another big themed area in space of the building that houses the movie ride / Crazy Bats could be in the works. But that gets very close to people's homes. Still FLY shows that that isn't a problem necessarily I guess. But doubt another new coaster opens before 2025. Europa Park scheduled to get new coaster. Will be interesting if Mack delivers a new concept that may be of interest to other parks. I noticed the RCDB placeholder is removed. Maybe an extreme spinner for themselves.
• Energylandia:
  2021: Abyssus, boomerang and mine train open
  2022: Tilt Coaster in existing area and family suspended coaster is lengthened to allow for 2 trains (source Fomo coaster), that may happen next year I guess.
  2023: Intamin twin duelling single rail coaster in brand new area. Considering history, RMC duel raptor may be more likely and more of a proven technology by then. Major hotel opens too.
  2024: Vekoma STC in existing/expanded area
  2025: Vekoma Flying coaster like FLY opens in brand new area. Plans for second hotel. Probably a major spinning ride will be built before 2025. Probably Vekoma too if their Guardians of the galaxy style coaster technology suits.

So clearly to me the exciting coaster stuff will be in Europe with hardly anything to note in the UK, even if parks indeed do well with more local footfall and people put off by international travel. I hope Merlin has a change of heart but I just don't see it happening. Wicker Man was a massive project (I love the theming) but it doesn't seem Merlin wants to do too much of that. Thorpe should get the next coaster but I think it will be beyond 2025. I expect a new coaster for Towers and Thorpe to arrive both in 2026.

Notice: this was just a nonsense rambling future prediction list. Not to be taken too seriously.

 

[Matt N]

One thing worth noting is that Merlin now has private ownership, meaning that their owners will likely look for more long term benefit from any investments made as opposed to a more short term approach under public ownership... might be worth bearing that in mind.

My personal prediction is that the parks’ financial situation by the end of 2020, provided that there are no new nationwide restrictions forcing them to close again, could well do far better than many were initially predicting, but I don’t think it’ll be a more profitable season than a regular one by any means, or even on par with a regular season.

I think the losses sustained during the first 4 months of the season are sadly too great to generate any huge profits, or even a regular season’s worth of profits, but I think they could well break even or turn a small profit based on how well they seem to be doing since they’ve reopened. The fact that the Merlin parks are removing closed days and upping opening hours, as well as extending events, seems like a very promising sign of success to me. The parks also look relatively busy, and I haven’t seen any cutting back hours or closing for the season early, so things must be relatively good.

For example, Alton Towers has sold out for today, tomorrow and Saturday. I’ve heard rumblings that the park is letting in around 12,000 at the moment, with a maximum capacity previously cited in 2014 at 28,000 (probably a little lower now), so they have gradually edged towards about 50% capacity, I think. Someone on TowersStreet calculated that with an annual attendance of about 2.1 million in 2019, and roughly 210 operating days, the park’s average daily attendance in 2019 was approximately 10,000. If the park is selling out with a capacity of 12,000, then that’s promising stuff to me, as that is still 20% higher than an average day in 2019. The park is also still seemingly able to apply social distancing measures to a degree with this amount of people on park, so people are being kept safe, but the park is also able to make money.

With this in mind, I’d say that 2023-2024 seems reasonable for SW9, personally. 2022 is still a remote possibility, but I admit it’s looking less and less likely, as we haven’t seen any planning permit or even any indication of a major ride yet and it’s August 2020, not to mention that many parks are pushing back their rides by a year or so (e.g. Djurs’ 2021 investment now for 2022, Parc Asterix’s 2022 Intamin now for 2023). My personal prediction is that by this time next year, things should be resolved or at the very least a little more certain, and the parks will have had operational time to offset their huge losses, so then parks might feel like a big investment is less risky and a good way to bring people back; the benefits would definitely outweigh the risks provided things look more certain. Using that as an indicator, I think 2023-2024 seems like a reasonable prediction, personally. If SW9 hasn’t opened by 2025, I’ll be quite surprised.

 

[ECG]

I'm surprised about you guys talking about park profits, when there's nothing but huge losses here in the States.
Cedar Fair posted a $142 million operating loss and revenue of $7 million compared with $436 million in the previous year due to low attendance - that's a 98% drop in revenue. The three parks that the company was able to open during the period saw 8 million fewer visitors than they did last year.
Six Flags revenue in the quarter was $19 million, with attendance of 433,000 - both a decrease of 96% over 2019. That led to a net loss in the quarter of $137 million, a decrease of $216 million over last year. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was a loss of $96 million, a decrease of $276 million from 2019. Guest spending was also down 15% over 2019 levels - but half of the attendance in this period came from the drive through safari at Great Adventure, which skewed things quite a bit.
Disney reported revenue of $983 million during the third quarter, down 85% compared to last year, and a net loss of almost $2 billion for its theme park division as a result of the prolonged closure of its theme parks worldwide. The company reported a significant number of canceled park reservations, which is currently offset by offering the spots to locals and annual passholders. Overall, revenue fell to about $11.8 billion, but Disney still saw a small profit with adjusted earnings per share of 8 cents.
Aren't UK parks operating at reduced capacity and that's causing the sold out days and restrictions for annual passholders? Will Merlin and other UK park operators actually show profits this quarter? I have my doubts, but am hoping that might be the case.

 

[Matt N]

I'm surprised about you guys talking about park profits, when there's nothing but huge losses here in the States.
Cedar Fair posted a $142 million operating loss and revenue of $7 million compared with $436 million in the previous year due to low attendance - that's a 98% drop in revenue. The three parks that the company was able to open during the period saw 8 million fewer visitors than they did last year.
Six Flags revenue in the quarter was $19 million, with attendance of 433,000 - both a decrease of 96% over 2019. That led to a net loss in the quarter of $137 million, a decrease of $216 million over last year. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was a loss of $96 million, a decrease of $276 million from 2019. Guest spending was also down 15% over 2019 levels - but half of the attendance in this period came from the drive through safari at Great Adventure, which skewed things quite a bit.
Disney reported revenue of $983 million during the third quarter, down 85% compared to last year, and a net loss of almost $2 billion for its theme park division as a result of the prolonged closure of its theme parks worldwide. The company reported a significant number of canceled park reservations, which is currently offset by offering the spots to locals and annual passholders. Overall, revenue fell to about $11.8 billion, but Disney still saw a small profit with adjusted earnings per share of 8 cents.
Aren't UK parks operating at reduced capacity and that's causing the sold out days and restrictions for annual passholders? Will Merlin and other UK park operators actually show profits this quarter? I have my doubts, but am hoping that might be the case.

This is Q2, isn’t it, though? When the parks were mostly closed apart from a very small glimmer at the end?

Merlin are operating at reduced capacity, but taking into account that the alleged capacity of Alton Towers is higher than an average day’s attendance in 2019 was, this does look more promising for Q3 results to me.

In terms of America, I think Q3 will look much more promising, as many of the parks have been able to reopen for a significant amount of the quarter.

 

[Hyde]

Yeah, don't kid yourself on the profitability question. Outside of Covid, we are also in an economic recession, with record unemployment - this historically pushes down park attendance and in-park spending (the biggest revenue opportunity of all for parks). That, combined with a splattering of government regulation that limits parks operating at full capacity means there are dozens of factors that limit the "money making" of parks.

The industry in general is down, and can't "capitalism" it's way out of it for now.

 

[Matt N]

Yeah, don't kid yourself on the profitability question. Outside of Covid, we are also in an economic recession, with record unemployment - this historically pushes down park attendance and in-park spending (the biggest revenue opportunity of all for parks). That, combined with a splattering of government regulation that limits parks operating at full capacity means there are dozens of factors that limit the "money making" of parks.

The industry in general is down, and can't "capitalism" it's way out of it for now.

Funny you should say that, because many regional theme parks actually did very well during previous recessions. For example, here in the UK, our parks actually did very well out of the financial crash in 2008 due to a staycation boom, and they still did really well during the recession following 9/11, too, and for similar reasons. In the medium term, I could see regional theme parks doing very well, as there has also been somewhat of a staycation boom over the summer.

The fact that Merlin are upping hours, removing closed days and extending events seems very promising when their usual approach to failure is to cut back, downscale these things and add closed days into the calendar, and I know that this is what many less successful parks have been doing.

It is also worth noting that the USA has a very different pandemic on its hands to much of Europe at the moment; cases in many states of the USA are much higher than any country in Europe and still surging, with some states even seeing levels higher than in April, when the pandemic was widely considered to be at its “peak”.

As I said, these are also Q2 results, and most worldwide parks were closed during the bulk of Q2. Q3 should paint a more promising picture, as many more parks have been able to operate.

 

[ECG]

This is Q2, isn’t it, though? When the parks were mostly closed apart from a very small glimmer at the end?

Merlin are operating at reduced capacity, but taking into account that the alleged capacity of Alton Towers is higher than an average day’s attendance in 2019 was, this does look more promising for Q3 results to me.

In terms of America, I think Q3 will look much more promising, as many of the parks have been able to reopen for a significant amount of the quarter.

Those are the Q2 results reported this past week by all the park chains. I posted Universal's on Monday and their parks division plunged 94% in the quarter, generating $87 million, which was down significantly from $1.46 billion it made during the same period last year. Q3 comes later, but I only expect worse U.S. numbers as more parks close.

 

[Matt N]

Those are the Q3 results reported this past week by all the park chains. I posted Universal's on Monday and their parks division plunged 94% in the quarter, generating $87 million, which was down significantly from $1.46 billion it made during the same period last year.

How can the parks already be reporting Q3 results when Q3 hasn’t ended yet (Q3 is July, August, September, isn’t it?)? When I googled Cedar Fair results, the ones that were listed as having been reported at the beginning of August were Q2 results: https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...edar-Fair-Reports-2020-Second-Quarter-Results

And in terms of Universal, the results you cite are second-quarter, for the period ending 30th June. The parks were all shut for most of this period: https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando...-theme-parks-biz-plunges-thanks-to-covid.html

Q3 results (the ones where they will have been open the whole time) presumably won’t come until around October. I’m not trying to be pedantic for the sake of it, I’m only confused because we’ve still got half of Q3 to go.

 

[ECG]

How can the parks already be reporting Q3 results when Q3 hasn’t ended yet (Q3 is July, August, September, isn’t it?)? When I googled Cedar Fair results, the ones that were listed as having been reported at the beginning of August were Q2 results: https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...edar-Fair-Reports-2020-Second-Quarter-Results

And in terms of Universal, the results you cite are second-quarter, for the period ending 30th June. The parks were all shut for most of this period: https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando...-theme-parks-biz-plunges-thanks-to-covid.html

Q3 results (the ones where they will have been open the whole time) presumably won’t come until around October. I’m not trying to be pedantic for the sake of it, I’m only confused because we’ve still got half of Q3 to go.

You quoted me as I was editing the post. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Matt N]

You quoted me as I was editing the post. Sorry for the confusion.

That’s quite all right! My point is that I was expecting better Q3 results because most parks have been open for a far longer period than they were during Q2, so that offers more opportunities to receive cash/profits.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

So the reason I mentioned it is because these parks ARE NOT quiet!!!!

What are usually quiet week days are consistently busier than busy weekend days here in the UK.

I don’t care what anybody says, the supposed limited capacity has not meant these parks are quieter, it’s actually had the opposite effect. It’s meant people clambering for tickets. It’s also meant they can get away with restricting annual pass entry, so more guests are full paying.

I visit Alton Towers at least once a week, and I don’t recall it ever seeming this busy during week days before. In fact I don’t recall it ever feeling this busy outside of fireworks night before! Remember, they’re achieving this whilst restricting ‘free’ annual pass entry!!!

My visit to BPB was the same... A Thursday, Outside the holidays, should have been quiet, it was packed!!!

It will be very interesting to see how much of the losses from the 3 months of closures can be clawed back, if they’re left with losses at all.

America is a different ball game altogether. I wouldn’t be visiting a park there right now! Or at any point in the last 4 or 5 months! Also the UK’s epidemic peak was during one of the quietest parts of the season for the UK. America’s peak has stretched well into the summer.

Edit:

The queues to get into legoland from the car park this morning... ON A WEEK DAY! (photocred: MAP Group)

 

[Matt N]

I think the "reduced capacity" is a percentage of maximum capacity, which in Alton Towers' case is approximately 28,000. However, the amount they're letting in is still higher than an average day in 2019 apparently was, so that must be promising for Merlin's financial state.

As for America; like @Nicky Borrill says, it's a completely different scenario over there. We were originally planning to go to Florida in mid-2021, but my parents have said that's now off the table until at least 2022 to give America's COVID situation time to right itself, especially with Florida supposedly being one of the country's COVID hotspots.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I think the "reduced capacity" is a percentage of maximum capacity, which in Alton Towers' case is approximately 28,000. However, the amount they're letting in is still higher than an average day in 2019 apparently was, so that must be promising for Merlin's financial state.

As for America; like @Nicky Borrill says, it's a completely different scenario over there. We were originally planning to go to Florida in mid-2021, but my parents have said that's now off the table until at least 2022 to give America's COVID situation time to right itself, especially with Florida supposedly being one of the country's COVID hotspots.

So even with 50% capacity for the rest of the year, (Which I think they’re already above!) if they continue to sell out or are close to selling out every day... Alton towers gate numbers could be around 1,680,000... Again, with more of those guests being full priced tickets!!!

To give that some context they achieved just over 2m last year...

And remember, all being well, they will be allowed more than 50% at some point, if not already!!!

 

[Matt N]

So even with 50% capacity for the rest of the year, (Which I think they’re already above!) if they continue to sell out or are close to selling out every day... Alton towers gate numbers could be around 1,680,000... Again, with more of those guests being full priced tickets!!!

To give that some context they achieved just over 2m last year...

And remember, all being well, they will be allowed more than 50% at some point, if not already!!!

It might be worth remembering that they haven’t been hitting full capacity every single day, but yes, these are all points worth considering.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

It might be worth remembering that they haven’t been hitting full capacity every single day, but yes, these are all points worth considering.

Every day I’ve been, it’s felt busier in the week than a normal weekend day... But yeh, they haven’t announced ‘sold out’ every day...

On that point though it’s also worth remembering that they allow you to book on the day where tickets remain, so no announcement the day before doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t sell out the following day

Also, as it stands now... The next available ticket is Tues 11th.... They ALREADY sold out for Mon!!! (And the weekend!)

 

[JammyH]

There’s no doubt about it, the parks are far too busy at the moment. I don’t see a situation in where they are allowed to increase their capacities, with the threat of an exponential rise in numbers.

If the cases do increase it is more likely the parks will have to hold or even reduce their capacities, I think it is highly unlikely they will be allowed to increase them again.

As said though, the daily capacity is far higher than they would normally be getting at this time of year anyway, because they are modelling the “reduced capacity” off the theoretical maximum capacity and not a daily average. It’s all pretty poor in my opinion as the “reduced capacity” saga is a load of crap and is going to lead to a load of poor trip advisor reviews, but I understand the desperate scramble for money at the moment.

Hopefully parks will quieten down in September so we can have a more enjoyable and relaxed day out.

 

[JammyH]

Sorry to double post.

Quarantine situation update from BBC NEWS.

People returning from Belgium, the Bahamas and Andorra from midnight on Thursday will have to quarantine at home for a fortnight, the Welsh Government has said.

It is expected the rest of the UK will follow suit shortly.

A Welsh Government spokesman added: "The four nations of the UK made this decision together and we have amended our regulations.

"We understand similar changes will be made in the other nations."