Which UK theme park do you feel is left most at risk by the potential of Universal entering the UK?

[Matt N]

Hi guys. In the last year or so, we’ve had a rather interesting prospect begin to develop in the form of Universal’s potential entry into the UK theme park market. This rather sudden revelation from Universal took the UK enthusiast community by storm, and by extension, I’d imagine that the revelation has piqued the industry’s interest as well. But with Universal showing signs of intending to develop in the UK, it does arguably pose some competitive risks to the parks that already reside in the UK. With this in mind, I’d be intrigued to know; which British theme park do you feel is left most at risk by the potential of Universal entering the UK?

Personally, I’m going to be slightly controversial and say that I think Universal poses the most risk to Alton Towers, of the current UK parks.

One reason I have for thinking this is that at present, most UK parks cater primarily to a day trip audience. Pretty much all of the smaller parks cater primarily to day trips, and I’d argue that even the London area Merlin parks are day trip-focused, to a strong extent. Thorpe Park in particular, of Merlin’s London properties, is predominantly day trip focused. Universal, on the other hand, will be going for the theme park short break pound, the sort of pound that goes to Disneyland Paris or PortAventura for a few days rather than Drayton Manor or Paultons Park for a regional day trip. With this in mind, I think there’s unlikely to be too much competitive overlap between Universal and most UK parks in this sense. But which park in the UK is an outlier in being somewhat more focused on theme park short breaks? Alton Towers. While the park does have many day visitors, it is unlike most UK parks in having an expansive and well-known resort offering; the park has 694 hotel rooms (indeed, this is supposedly more than Universal’s planned UK resort will open with), a waterpark, a crazy golf course and numerous other “resort”-y things that make it more than just a day trip theme park.

My other reason for feeling that Alton Towers potentially has the most to lose from Universal of the current UK parks is that unlike the other Merlin parks, I don’t feel it really has a strong USP or target market of its own that Universal will never aim to compete with. Thorpe Park has the big coasters, flat rides and general thrill-heavy targeting, Chessington has the zoo, and Legoland has the Lego; these are all areas in which Universal is unlikely to compete too heavily and which the 3 parks in question will likely always maintain a competitive advantage over Universal. But what does Alton Towers have? Universal is likely to aim for a very similar all-round target audience to Alton Towers, they are likely to go for a very similar “family theme park short break” pound to that which Alton Towers currently targets, and they are likely to trounce Alton in the areas of dark rides, theming, entertainment and IP. Granted, Alton Towers does have its thrill coasters, but to properly bend this to their competitive advantage, they’d likely have to do similar to Thorpe and up the thrill-heavy targeting, which would likely wipe out almost 30 years of trying to develop themselves as a family short break resort.

With all this in mind, I do personally feel that Alton perhaps has the toughest time ahead of the current UK parks if Universal does come to the UK. But I’d be keen to know; which UK theme park do you feel is left most at risk by the potential for Universal coming to the UK?

 

[Hixee]

My instant response, with little actual thinking, was Alton Towers. I think has nationally always been seen as the flagship park (I reckon it's by far the most common park non-goons have been to when it comes up I'm an enthusiast), and I reckon the presence of Universal - it's scale, quality and IPs - will quickly enter the public consciousness in a big way.

Looking at the different demographics, though, I think Chessington (kids/families), Thorpe (coasters) and Alton (notoriety) may all see an effect. Merlin overall I think will need to be thinking about this. Though I suppose depends on how Universal actually plays out - coaster/ride selection, price, quality, etc.

I suspect the other 'regional' parks - Drayton, Blackpool, Paultons - are probably not quite as likely to be affected.

This is all with about ten seconds of thought though - would be interested to see what others think with some more insight and experience. I'm not really a very 'good' UK goon overall - outside of ride openings on press days (Hyperia 2024 and Mandrill Mayhem 2023), I haven't been to one of the big UK parks in years [Alton - 2021, Drayton - 2021, Blackpool - 2019, Paultons - 2022, Legoland - 2004]...

 

[JoshC.]

I think the main thing with Universal will come down to the price point and expectation.

When Brits go to Universal in the US, they go for multiple days. It's a huge holiday point. And so the price to get just gets absorbed into that of a holiday. Are Brits going to  want to spend multiple days at Universal GB? Or will they only see it as a 1-2 dayer? Either way, it'll likely be expensive, which means people won't go very often.

Now, if to say a one day ticket to Universal costs £100, and you can get to Towers for (let's say) £50, whilst the overall quality at Universal might be better (and potentially twice as good), will families choose to double the amount they spend on entry for 1 day? Possibly. Possibly not.

My point is: if Universal GB is a similar set up to all the others (a very premium park at a very premium price), it will certainly attract an audience and be very successful. And they can definitely draw in crowds from Europe to be sustainable long-term. However, it doesn't mean that it'll hugely impact the UK parks.

If anything, it could be good for them. Strategic advertising and the setting up of clear transport routes might draw more eyes to Thorpe or Towers from airports, for example. I'm not saying all foreign tourists will tack on a trip to Thorpe if they're coming for Universal, but it might just bring more attention their way, letting people know it's an option.

However, to answer the question: I think Towers is most at risk of getting hit given their 'icon UK park status', as well as how much they push being a resort, and the high price they charge for the resort side of things.

 

[owenstreet7]

I'm hoping it is none of them because they all have their niches i.e. Towers (Immersion), Thorpe (Thrills), Chessington (Animal) and Legoland (Lego) however I don't think it's as simple as that. The Merlins could easily be like Asterix to Disneyland Paris or Seaworld/Busch Gardens to Orlando Disney and Universal parks if they put their minds to it.

I'm going to say that one point I shall make is the Tussauds way of making Thorpe Park for Thrills and Chessington for Families might possibly put them at a disadvantage compared to Universal although it could work if multi day trips to theme parks work in the same way as Orlando. I personally think it's more likely that people will visit Universal UK and then the Warner Bros Studio Tour the day after (especially if a Potter themed area comes to Universal). Thorpe Park and Chessington with their approaches could easily be right for them and be an advantage as long as they're consistent with it.

My reasons for picking Towers is because the park seems to be stagnant in their investments and I'd be concerned if they don't start looking towards their line up gaps. They lack a lot of flat rides, a flume style ride, a selection of indoor rides and most of all a range of rides that everyone can ride together.

Another big factor that will really put Towers at a disadvantage compared to the south parks is how accessible they are by public transport which is what a lot of international tourists will use to get to parks. Thorpe Park having the Thorpe Park Express from Staines and Chessington being outside of Chessington South station both put their parks at a bigger advantage to Towers when Universal comes. In addition to this, they are both closer to London so it is easier for people to do those parks in addition to Universal although it isn't the most straightforward route to get to Staines from Bedford.

Legoland is a separate thing altogether and won't be disadvantaged by Universal as people will tend to go for the Lego brand experience. I'd say it'll sit similarly to Florida.

Merlin will be smart to invest into the southern parks in reality with Universal however I don't think Universal is their only threat.

Paultons Park, Drayton Manor and Blackpool Pleasure Beach represent more immediate threats of varying levels and target audiences which could sting Merlin sooner than Universal. I'd argue the biggest threat to Alton Towers right now is actually an expanding Paultons Park taking on thrills on top of their established and well catered family audience so the park can grow with them. A lot of people honestly don't think Towers will lose it's crown because of nostalgia however I think before Universal sweeps in, Paultons will hit them hard and take the crown first.

That's my take on it in my honest opinion and I'd say Towers will be hit the hardest not just because of Universal but the combined threat of Universal, an emerging Paultons and a renaissance of Blackpool and Drayton.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

At first I thought that Universal would be a threat, but now I'm thinking a little differently. Honestly, I don't think that Universal is a massive threat to any regional parks. The bigger concern is the next few years (but we've covered that in other threads.) I agree that Alton Towers has to do more to ensure their survival, but I honestly don't think they'll struggle.

Universal itself will draw a lot of 'new tourism' to UK Theme Parks. Overseas tourists that otherwise would have just visited London, and maybe WB Studios, will now tag on Universal. Other international guests will now use the high speed rail networks to travel between Disney and Universal, (as well as London and Paris) making a full holiday of it. Domestic customers will still take advantage of the more affordable days out that regional parks offer. Sure the domestic GP WILL visit Universal, but I doubt they'll visit as regularly as they currently visit AT or Thorpe. Same applies for some enthusiasts too, particular those local to Thorpe or Towers. I'm not going to travel down to Universal once or twice a week, for a quick mid week visit, I'll go once a month tops (after the initial excitement has died down.)

Universal will not be a "thrill seeker's" park. Sure it will have one or two rides in that category, but both Thorpe and Alton Towers have a huge jump on them there. One or two big thrill additions each and Universal is unlikely to ever catch up in terms of being a thrill park.

Universal could actually present an opportunity to some of the parks, like Legoland, Thorpe, Paulton's and Chessington (Maybe not so much AT) to attract new guests from this pool of tourists travelling to the UK just for Universal (there will be a lot, from all of Europe especially, but further afield too.) In the same way Seaworld and Busch Gardens feed off Disney and Universal in Florida. For example, we all (us Brits, both enthusiasts and GP) fly out to Florida to visit Disney and Universal, and most of us, by default, will tag on Seaworld and Busch Gardens too. However, not many of us are making special trips to the other Busch Gardens or Seaworld Parks, only the most committed enthusiasts. And yet, Busch Gardens is more than a 2 hour drive from Orlando.

(Current traffic) Drive Times, Bedford to:

Thorpe / Legoland 1:20
Chessington 1:30
Alton Towers 2:05
Paulton's Park 2:10

They will all need to be seen to be investing though. I think Hyperia is already a big step towards Thorpe securing their spot as the main 'thrill add on day' for those visiting the UK for a 'Universal Holiday,' fill that Island with something massive, and they'll be just fine. But Alton Towers have time yet to make the right additions and put themselves in play. Chessington and Paulton's would both make great 'family day' add ons.

Honestly, I think that any domestic loss of footfall, for all parks, but especially southern parks, will be countered by additional footfall from international visitors, so long as they make the right moves in the next 6 or 7 years. I also think that Merlin are carefully positioning themselves to be in exactly the right position to do this, financially, with their recent changes. Cut the fat so that you can focus on your bread and butter, that will need significant investment over the next 7 years. (But this is just personal conjecture.)

Ticket companies like 'Attraction Tickets' will, I imagine, be offering combined packages to overseas tourists. If Merlin make the right moves with companies like this, make it worth their while, and get their parks on ticket packages that include Universal, that will help too.

The ball is basically in their court, if they invest hard, they have a unique opportunity to make the entire UK Theme Park network, a must visit for overseas guests, off the back of Universal. Universal won't be opening as a "bubble" resort, at least not initially, with one park and a CityWalk, there isn't enough there alone for people to make an entire holiday out of it. Merlin (and others) just need to do enough to make themselves an option, for those leaving the bubble.

EDIT: Forgot to add Alton Towers will NEED to sort out their public transport links, it'll be none negotiable now. They NEED their own shuttle busses operating much more regularly throughout the day between the park and Stoke station / Uttoxeter station. Or at the very least, a much better link than currently exists.

(Or maybe East Midland Parkway is the better option, since it's less than an hour on a direct train from Bedford, whereas Stoke is 2 hours / 2 changes. Interestingly, Stoke to Alton Towers by road is 30 mins, and East Midlands Parkway to the park is only 45 minutes, I'm surprised they haven't already commissioned a shuttle to the new station. East Midlands Parkway would make a great gateway to the south for them. )

 

[NemesisRider]

Really interesting question posed in this thread.

I think we should preface any thinking about Universal as a threat to the existing UK theme park scene by noting that Universal GB, in all likelihood, will net grow UK theme park attendance. It's likely that the iconic IPs and international brand mean that Universal GB will draw in a lot more foreign tourists than our existing parks. I also expect they'll be targeting Britons who would not visit our local parks but would happily splurge on, say, a trip to Disneyland Paris for them and their kids.

I think there's three main factors for cannibalisation amongst the UK local crowd:
- Geography. The Southern parks are the ones who should be most worried about cannibalisation from Universal. These mostly rely on locals from London/the greater South East, which Universal will also pull on.
- Target demography. If their other mainline parks are representative, Universal UK will mostly be targeting families with older kids (>8?). Maybe they'll also be trying to capture the affluent-ish young professional market too, but we'll see. On gut-feel, that former segment feels very aligned with Towers' main market.
- Market positioning. If Universal ends up being a premium offering, it may well end up pitching itself as a Staycation alternative to the likes of DLP, Europa Park or even Florida. Only Alton Towers' stands out to me as trying to position themselves as a real premium product in the UK theme park market, but I think their entrance fees will remain much lower than Universal's.

I think the Southern Merlin parks will hold their own just fine. The LEGO IP and Legoland Windsor has the "families with very young kids" segment in a complete chokehold (who doesn't love LEGO?). Chessington's status as a theme park-zoo combo keeps them sufficiently different, though I would not be surprised if they ended up leaning more into the zoo aspect to differentiate themselves amongst families. Thorpe Park feels in the best state it's been for years, with Hyperia and the rebrand revitalising things. I suspect they'll double down on being the UK's premier thrill destination and remain very popular with the young adult crowd in the South East. If I was Thorpe, I'd next be trying to build stronger links with Heathrow to improve their public transit accessibility, making it an easy day out to tack on as part of a wider UK trip.

I suspect that independent parks like BPB or Paultons are sufficiently far from Universal to not be hugely impacted.

However, if I was Alton Towers' management, Universal would worry me a lot. First off, Towers is seen as the UK's most iconic theme park (for now), and losing that status might force them to drive down their prices to compete. I think this would be especially true for the short-break and resort elements of Towers, which I find hideously over-priced for the quality of offering. Secondly, Towers is also pretty awkwardly located, with questionable road links and non-existent public transit making it a commitment to visit. If the South East continues to be basically the only bit of the UK ever getting any richer, then Universal might entice these bigger spenders to visit a park closer to home. Lastly, I do have concerns more generally about the trajectory of Towers. Lately, a lot of the park's money and energy has gone into refurbishing and relaunching existing attractions (Nemesis Reborn in 2024, Curse in 2023, Alton Dungeon in 2019, etc), seemingly giving them precious little to invest into brand new stuff. This will only get worse as Oblivion and Galactica likely head towards the end of their service lives. Competition from Universal will put them under a lot of pressure to build genuinely new and exciting offerings, which is a big ask given their complex planning situation, lack of usable space, and tighter budgets.

Time will tell; I think the theme park attendance pie is big enough for everyone to get their share.

 

[Matt N]

The idea of Universal UK actually benefitting the existing UK parks is an interesting one, albeit one I don’t entirely agree with.

It’s a sound principle on paper; if more people come from abroad to visit a new Universal park, surely they’re ripe to visit our existing parks as well?

If the UK were like Orlando, I would definitely agree with the point… but I don’t think the UK and the crowds likely to be visiting the new Universal park are comparable to Orlando. Orlando is quite a unique proposition in terms of how it pulls people to go on a 2 week holiday visiting theme parks; the area is primarily known internationally for theme parks, and there arguably isn’t an awful lot else around in terms of significant history, culture etc.

Whereas, I feel that many of the crowds heading up to Bedford to visit Universal would likely want to fill the rest of their UK time with cultural activities in and around London, which is still arguably a world renowned city in terms of history and culture. There will be people who are making trips to Bedford from the centre of London, hence the emphasis on rail links with the capital via Thameslink etc. London is not primarily known internationally for theme parks, so I don’t feel that the Orlando comparison quite works in this case.

Perhaps a more prudent comparison, I feel, would be DLP and Asterix in the greater Paris area. Parc Asterix weathered the storm of DLP pretty satisfactorily and seems to be doing well for itself, but does it attract significant international visitation outside of enthusiast circles? I’m not so sure.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

The idea of Universal UK actually benefitting the existing UK parks is an interesting one, albeit one I don’t entirely agree with.

It’s a sound principle on paper; if more people come from abroad to visit a new Universal park, surely they’re ripe to visit our existing parks as well?

If the UK were like Orlando, I would definitely agree with the point… but I don’t think the UK and the crowds likely to be visiting the new Universal park are comparable to Orlando. Orlando is quite a unique proposition in terms of how it pulls people to go on a 2 week holiday visiting theme parks; the area is primarily known internationally for theme parks, and there arguably isn’t an awful lot else around in terms of significant history, culture etc.

Whereas, I feel that many of the crowds heading up to Bedford to visit Universal would likely want to fill the rest of their UK time with cultural activities in and around London, which is still arguably a world renowned city in terms of history and culture. There will be people who are making trips to Bedford from the centre of London, hence the emphasis on rail links with the capital via Thameslink etc. London is not primarily known internationally for theme parks, so I don’t feel that the Orlando comparison quite works in this case.

Perhaps a more prudent comparison, I feel, would be DLP and Asterix in the greater Paris area. Parc Asterix weathered the storm of DLP pretty satisfactorily and seems to be doing well for itself, but does it attract significant international visitation outside of enthusiast circles? I’m not so sure.

Well obviously, it's not Florida, there's no Disney, and only one Universal park, plus a distinct lack of sunshine.

But it doesn't 'need' to be like Florida. We're not talking Florida levels of attendance needed here, were talking about making up a potential shortfall of a few hundred thousand lost in domestic footfall. We have to be looking at a 5 to 8M minimum attendance don't we? (I'm sure there'll be a figure mentioned somewhere but I can't remember?) If a tiny percentage of those guests are the same 'type' of guests who visit Florida, and want to do all of the local parks (especially if those local parks make themselves worthwhile visiting) then that's enough.

It is worth noting though, that Universal's most successful park is outside of Florida, in Japan, with 16M annual visitors (Again, not really comparable, as it's an entirely different market, and Japan itself has twice the population of the UK.)

As for the Asterix comparison, I'm glad you mentioned that, as it was one I'd already looked into, before making the combo ticket statement. Parc Asterix and Disney Combo tickets are a thing, so I guess they get enough from Disney to make it worth offering combo tickets.

I feel a Merlin All Attractions 7 / 14 day explorer pass on the horizon, which will be offered to these ticket companies cheap, if they bundle them with Universal tickets, like they do in Florida. (If they don't do this, I'll be gobsmacked.)

EDIT: Just looked up their predicted attendance, and the only mention was to state that all Universal parks globally attract at least 8.4M people in 2022, so looks like that's the minimum target for them.

 

[owenstreet7]

Perhaps a more prudent comparison, I feel, would be DLP and Asterix in the greater Paris area. Parc Asterix weathered the storm of DLP pretty satisfactorily and seems to be doing well for itself, but does it attract significant international visitation outside of enthusiast circles? I’m not so sure.

The thing with Asterix is that it's very much a French IP (comics) that isn't as well known outside of French speaking countries. In the UK, our equivalent could be the likes of the Beano or Dandy.

It is available in English however it's nowhere near as big as it is in France.

This is likely why Parc Asterix doesn't attract as many non-French visitors outside of enthusiast circles.

I'd say Plopsaland is very very similar with it's IPs and it's prominence outside of the Benelux. You don't hear anything about Kabouter Plop in English speaking regions however it's massive over in the Benelux and France. The series appears to be practically the Benelux and France's sort of equivalent to The Wiggles with it's musical format (in a more fantasy setting).

 

[Nicky Borrill]

The thing with Asterix is that it's very much a French IP (comics) that isn't as well known outside of French speaking countries. In the UK, our equivalent could be the likes of the Beano or Dandy.

It is available in English however it's nowhere near as big as it is in France.

This is likely why Parc Asterix doesn't attract as many non-French visitors outside of enthusiast circles.

I'd say Plopsaland is very very similar with it's IPs and it's prominence outside of the Benelux. You don't hear anything about Kabouter Plop in English speaking regions however it's massive over in the Benelux and France. The series appears to be practically the Benelux and France's sort of equivalent to The Wiggles with it's musical format (in a more fantasy setting).

Asterix was massive in the UK when I was a kid... Am I making myself look old now? Or did it just miss you?


I've just noticed your Avatar, and I think I am probably significantly older than you to be fair. But yeh, Asterix was big in the late 80s / early 90s, with successful video games, comics and cartoons. It's a shame it doesn't seem to even have a foothold on the UK market these days. (As you rightly pointed out.)

 

[owenstreet7]

Asterix was massive in the UK when I was a kid... Am I making myself look old now? Or did it just miss you?


I've just noticed your Avatar, and I think I am probably significantly older than you to be fair. But yeh, Asterix was big in the late 80s / early 90s, with successful video games, comics and cartoons. It's a shame it doesn't seem to even have a foothold on the UK market these days. (As you rightly pointed out.)

Yeah, I'm approaching 30 (in a matter of days actually) so likely wasn't born when Asterix was big in the UK. I was pretty much growing up through the Pokémon craze.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Yeah, I'm approaching 30 (in a matter of days actually) so likely wasn't born when Asterix was big in the UK. I was pretty much growing up through the Pokémon craze.

It was more the early 90s for me. I think I only discovered the comics 'because' of the Master System game, which was a great game. It had sequels of course. But there was also cartoon movies. To be honest, I think many of the cartoons and movies were older than the 90s, but found a new lease of life with British kids my age in the 90s due to the computer games.

You didn't ask for a history lesson, but you got one, sorry. Your original point is very much still valid by the way, and I agree. I just wanted to make sure anybody who wasn't aware, knew that Asterix had been popular at times in the UK, it hadn't always been France only.

Pokemon was also huge when I was a kid, but I was much closer to leaving school by then. (I must have been around 15 then, because I was working a Sunday job on Donnington Market, and used to spend loads of my wages on card packs before I'd even left the market, many stalls stocked them. I played and collected Magic the Gathering at the time too.)

 

[Coastiesaurus]

On chessington and it’s unique selling point being its animals - haven’t there recently been rumours of Merlin looking to reduce the animal collection there and possibly move out of animals altogether?