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Mitch Hawker and Golden Ticket - More Similar Than Thought?

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Matt SR
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I hopped onto the Mitch Hawker poll site yesterday, and stumbled across a quick article comparison that Mitch appeared to drum up after last year's polls.

A lot of times you will hear folks discussing Golden Ticket Awards and the Mitch Hawker Polls, and how both are night in day in terms of accuracy and true representation of what roller coasters are best. But as it turns out, both polls may be more similar than it appears.

First, let's delve into how each poll is designed.

The Golden Ticket Awards were established in 1998 by the Amusement Today publication, and are often the most recognized by parks and media expose's (think Discovery Channel or Travel Channel). The poll surveys "experienced and well-traveled enthusiasts" and runs on a total point system. That is, the roller coasters that accrue the greatest amount of points receive higher rankings. The poll has tried to implement geographic regioning of late in order to attempt preventing bias of voting, but the results are always met with skepticism from the enthusiast community.

The Mitch Hawker Poll ("Best Roller Coaster Poll") has been around since 1994, and has carried a more grass-roots vibe over time. Anyone is welcome to enter the poll. The poll mechanism is a bit more complex, using a pairwise mutual comparison method. Basically, the poll compares how each individual ranked any two specific roller coasters, and then ranks roller coasters by the percentage they are preferred over other roller coasters by the majority of ballots.

Here is a quick comparison of how each steel coaster poll stacked up for 2013: (BRCP is Mitch Hawker, GT Golden Ticket, Diff the difference between rankings)

BRCP GT Diff Steel Coaster Park Loc
14 1 -13 Millennium Force Cedar Point OH
4 2 -2 Bizarro SF New England MA
1 3 2 Expedition GeForce Holiday Park DE
24 4 -20 Nitro Six Flags Great Ad NJ
40 5 -35 Apollo's Chariot Busch Gardens Will VA
2 6 4 New Texas Giant Six Flags Over Tex TX
31 7 -24 Goliath Six Flags Over Geo GA
43 8 -35 Intimidator Carowinds NC
82 9 -73 Magnum XL-200 Cedar Point OH
3 10 7 Intimidator 305 Kings Dominion VA

Rather large swings, right?

However, if you were to modify the Mitch Hawker Ballot entries to be scored the same as the Golden Ticket Awards, something weird happens:

BRCP GT Pts GT Pts Diff Steel Coaster Park Loc
1 1 1225 1204 0 Millennium Force Cedar Point OH
22 2 1181 173 20 Maverick Cedar Point OH
3 3 747 598 0 Expedition GeForce Holiday Park DE
20 4 715 195 16 Nemesis Alton Towers UK
10 5 666 412 5 Intimidator 305 Kings Dominion VA
12 6 601 351 6 Top Thrill Dragster Cedar Point OH
26 7 600 124 19 Skyrush Hersheypark PA
2 8 580 1011 -6 Bizarro SF New England MA
4 9 512 596 -5 Nitro Six Flags Great Ad NJ
21 10 503 189 11 Blue Fire Megacoaster Europa Park DE

While not a mirror image, the Mitch Hawker ballots show much similar results to the Golden Tickets when applying the Golden Ticket total point system, with a lower average difference. (6.6 instead of -18.9; in this case the closer the value is to zero indicates greater reduction in difference)

While this is just a fun exercise to highlight differences in polling methods, it does shed some light onto how the Golden Ticket Awards are aggregated, and shows that similar results can be gleaned from other samples.

Be sure to check out the entire write-up, including larger comparison lists: http://ushsho.com/2013steelpollcomparison.htm
 
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